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My favorite Saturday Night Live skit of the past few years is a no-brainer. The Neil Diamond Storytellers skit gets me every time I watch it. For those who haven’t seen it, Will Ferrel plays Diamond during one of VH1’s Storytellers concerts in which the artist tells about how the song he’s about to sing came to be. Long story short, Diamond begins these heartwarming songs like “Forever in Blue Jeans,” “Cherry, Cherry,” and “Sweet Caroline” (now that you will have one of those three stuck in your head for the rest of the day, I’ll move on) and the intro story to each one gets progressively more and more horrifying. One was really about driving drunk and hitting a kid, one was about killing a drifter, so on and so forth. Anywho, the best part came when Diamond started freaking out and yelling, “EVERYBODY JUST COOL OUT!!!” onstage.
Why am I telling you this? Well, my favorite line from that skit keeps running through my head whenever I think about the 2006 Cincinnati Reds. I want to get excited. I want to get pumped. I want to start buying as much Reds memorabilia as I can afford. I want to schedule my Fall quarter around Reds home games. Everybody just cool out…
It’s so easy to get fired up for a baseball season. Every year seems destined to be better than the last. In Cincinnati’s case, anything above .500 would be dramatically better than last year. As a lifelong fan, I have been longing for the glory days of 1990, or even just times when the team was competitive. After last year’s red-hot start and subsequent cooling, I fell into the slump that’s typical in the latter part of the season. My battle cry at that point is always the same… “next year.”
Well, that next year is approaching rapidly, so I’m here to give a preview of the 2006 Cincinnati Reds position-by-position.
First Base:
After losing Sean “The Mayor” Casey, many Reds fans wept and cursed the team. It’s no doubt that Casey was the biggest fan favorite in Cincinnati. He was courteous to fans, graceful with the media, and usually led the team in batting average.
Here’s why I didn’t weep. I loved Sean Casey. So often he was the bright spot during dark days for the Reds. The fact remains that love from fans and other players doesn’t make you an elite player. If that were true, Barry Bonds would be playing Double-A ball somewhere. The truth is that Casey was wildly overpaid. He was a good contact hitter taking the lineup spot of someone who needed to be knocking in 20+ homers and 100+ RBIs. Casey’s line: 9 dingers, 58 RBIs. While he did bat .312 for the year, those singles he knocked out simply didn’t get the job done.
Enter Adam Dunn. The monstrous southpaw-hitting Dunn has never consistently played first, but should be good enough of an athlete to acquire the reaction time and knowledge of the position necessary to be effective. Dunn has the opportunity to hit home runs and doubles where Casey had been hitting into double plays.
Another promising move happened just the other day when the Reds inked veteran Scott Hatteberg. The free agent from Oakland bested Casey in every category but average last season, and will be a solid gap-filler should Dunn struggle.
Reason to Get Excited: Dunn and Hatteberg are offensively a step up from Casey.
Everybody Cool Out: We don’t know how well Dunn will be defensively and Hatteberg will surely slump after switching from AL to NL.
Second Base:
That creaking noise you hear wasn’t the Budweiser Party Deck about to give out. The creaking actually came from Rich Aurillia and the newly acquired Tony Womack playing catch.
Second base could easily become the weak spot in the Reds’ lineup. The 34-year-old Aurillia filled in nicely after D’Angelo Jiminez was designated for assignment, but didn’t provide the speed and agility that second basemen usually bring to the table. To add some depth at this position, the Reds traded for the 36-year old Womack. When comparing the two, Womack is a much more natural second baseman. He’s quicker, leaner, has more footspeed, and more experience at that position.
Expect to see utilityman Ryan Freel getting a lot of 2B playing time as well, just as long as he isn’t in a Covington Police drunk tank during home games. After opening last year with a DUI, the speedy Freel ended the year with another alcohol-related arrest. I guess he just likes to leave things as they came. Defensively, Freel is younger and faster than the two fossils, but will hit rough patches where he is more liable to throw the ball 15 rows into the stands than to the first baseman.
Another guy to keep an eye on is youngster Ray Olmedo. He saw limited action last year and will probably spend the majority of this year either at shortstop or playing for the Triple-A Louisville Bats.
Reason to Get Excited: The 3-headed monster of Aurillia, Womack, and Freel means even with injuries, the Reds will have an experienced player in the 4-spot.
Everybody Cool Out: Two of those three are closer to a retirement village than to Cooperstown.
Shortstop:
Last year was Felipe Lopez’ coming out party. Lopez led NL shortstops in dingers, extra-base hits, and RBIs en route to earning his first All Star game appearance. In previous years Lopez was known for his speed…and that was about it. He had been an anemic hitter, lousy fielder, and was recognized more for his neck tattoo than for anything he did on the field.
If Lopez’ monster year had come before 2005, he would have been accused of juicing. Where a Q-Tip shaped weakling had once stood, now there was a beefed-up slugger. Lopez improved every facet of his game last year, and gave the Reds a solid starter at SS since Barry Larkin started to slump.
This year should be the year that Lopez makes The Leap. Everything about the guy is screaming to pay attention to this year, because he should only get better. If he improves on his 17 errors from last year, watch out. We could have a potential superstar on our hands.
One of the four second basemen will likely be Lopez’ backup.
Reason to Get Excited: Lopez gives the Reds a returning All Star who can bat at either the two or three spot in the batting order.
Everybody Cool Out: The uncertainty at 2B could make it difficult for Lopez to find a consistent double-play partner and we could see another 17-error year.
Third Base:
Joe Randa became an MLB cult hero after his walk-off homer on opening day. Randa seemed like a perfect fit for the Reds, a country-boy who was more of a baseball player than an athlete. Randa would also see his first action in the playoffs in 2005…with the Padres.
I’m not criticizing the late-season trade; it was necessary at the time to lose a veteran on the roster to make way for a youngster.
That youngster is Edwin Encarnacion. He made his debut for the Reds last year, making appearances in 69 games. He didn’t show a tremendous bat during that time, but what he did show were flashes of greatness from his glove.
Encarnacion has a lot of raw talent and at age 23 he has a long time to develop it. Every young player takes him lumps, but the only problem is that Encarnacion will take him lumps wearing a Reds uniform instead of a Louisville or Chatanooga one. He doesn’t have the luxury of taking his time to find his swing, or adjust to big-league screaming line drives. Look for him to struggle at first, but eventually settle into a nice groove by the All Star break. Aurillia can play third when Encarnacion’s struggling gets to be too bad.
Reason to Get Excited: Encarnacion could be the future of the Reds’ infield.
Everybody Cool Out: Everybody thought that about Brandon Larson, too.
Outfield:
This is where Reds fans start to hyperventilate. For years the Reds have had too many good outfielders and not enough places for them to play. Most were calling for them to ship one of these talented players off in a trade, but management stayed firm. Now with Dunn moving to first base, the Reds will finally have their young talent on the field together.
Ken Griffey Jr. is a first-ballot Hall of Famer at centerfield. People forgot all about his injury-riddled tenure in Cincinnati last year when The Kid returned to form. After batting .301 with 30 doubles, 35 homers, and 92 RBIs, Griffey earned the NL Comeback Player of the Year award. Now that he was healthy, he was playing better than he had in years. This makes Griffey the most difficult player to project for 2006. I could go on and on about how he’ll top 40 home runs and eventually bat cleanup again and never make an error on the field, then he could rip his hamstring completely off his leg while going up a flight of steps.
Speaking of injury-plagued, Austin Kearns will finally have a chance to play in 140+ games this year. Kearns has been billed as the future for the Reds for the past decade it seems, but the injury bug has always cut him short. After battling Wily Mo Pena for playing time last year, Kearns never had a chance to get in a rhythm, and was eventually demoted to Triple-A Louisville. With Dunn moving to first, Pena will play in left and that opens the door for Kearns to be the full-time right fielder.
Pena first opened eyes at Single-A Dayton when he hit a homerun over the scoreboard and onto the street behind left-centerfield. We saw flashes of that power last year when Pena sent one 498 feet away from home plate. With power like that, Pena has emerged as a player almost ready to make The Leap. Unfortunately, his glove and his consistency are not anywhere near his power. You could usually hear a gasp from the crowd whenever a fly ball went towards Pena. He’s the kind of guy who makes the crowd go wild when he makes a routine play, just because he was expected to make an error.
The depth isn’t nearly what it has been in previous years. Jacob Cruz led the league in pinch hits last year with 200, and is an adequate substitution. Also look out for the Reds’ 2006 Minor League Player of the Year Chris Denorfia to get some PT.
Reason to Get Excited: The Reds finally have their young talent on the field together.
Everybody Cool Out: Kearns and Pena haven’t proven themselves in full-time roles and the Reds could potentially have two horrible outfielders on the field at once. Also, Griffey is signed on to play in the World Baseball Classic, or as I like to call it, the Ken Griffey Jr Gets Injured Before the Start of the Season Classic.
Catcher:
The players each get to choose their own entrance music for when they come out of the on-deck circle and walk to the plate. Jason LaRue always has them play Hank Williams Jr.’s “Country Boy Can Survive”. This is unbelievably accurate, not because LaRue is a country boy, but because he has survived his playing days. LaRue always seems to be just adequate enough to avoid getting benched or demoted. He doesn’t hit well, he fields okay, he’s not the best at calling games, he just survives. When Cincinnati pulled him up from the minors to replace Eddie Taubensee, he was billed as the next great Cincinnati catcher and every year we wait for him to prove himself, but he just survives.
There was actually a bright spot for the Reds at catcher last year. Javier Valentin came off the bench and woke up his bat in 2005. He hit 14 homeruns in only 76 games, nearly doubling his career total. Valentin gave the Reds another extra-base threat in a lineup that was already loaded. Sure he’s built like the Hamburglar, but he showed adeptness behind the dish.
I expected LaRue to be trade-bait after last year, but I guess they kept him around to be the starter to see if Valentin’s year was a fluke.
Reason to Get Excited: It was exciting to see Valentin come into his own last year, and he could improve even more this year.
Everybody Cool Out: We all thought the same thing when LaRue started filling in for Taubensee.
Starting Pitcher:
Ugh… every year the same thing. The Reds have a starting five that strikes fear into the heart of…absolutely nobody.
Aaron Harang is being listed as the ace of this year’s squad after his team-leading 11-13 record. Make sure you go back and read that last sentence again; I want it to stick. Harang is, at best, a third or fourth starter thrust into a headlining role. He’s 6’7”, 270 lbs, and the definition of a gentle giant. At his size one would expect 96 mph heaters and a slider that goes 9-to-3 in no time, right? How about a guy whose out pitch is a changeup. Harang tops out around 90 mph with his heater, and relies on junk to get batters out.
Eric Milton was very possibly 2005’s Least Valuable Player. The Reds signed Milton to a huge contract and then watched as he gave up a Reds record 40 homers. I was surprised that he never had to go on the disabled list with whiplash from watching his pitches launch over his head and over the outfield wall. Look for Milton to improve…he couldn’t possibly be worse.
Dave Williams came over from Pittsburgh in the Casey trade. He could be the dark horse of the bunch. He’s a left-hander who can rack up the heaters, but he’s also already had Tommy John surgery once before and could easily require it again. Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa raved about Williams’ ability when the Reds brought him in, but he seemed a little too excited for the Reds. It was almost like Brer Rabbit yelling “Please don’t throw me in the briar patch!”
Paul Wilson is a big question mark for this year. He’s coming off of shoulder surgery and could take some time to get back to form. Granted that form leaves a lot to be desired, but he should be a quality third or fourth starter if he gets back to 100 percent.
Brandon Claussen will likely round out the starting rotation. Claussen came to Cincinnati from New York in the Aaron Boone trade and saw his first significant action last year. He had a few great outings, but most of his appearances consisted of him getting shelled.
Reason to Get Excited: You would think this group would be better than they were last year, right?
Everybody Cool Out: The Reds had the leagues highest ERA last year and didn’t do much to improve it for ’06.
Relief Pitchers:
The Reds are on the verge of having a legitimate closing pitcher by midseason. Right hander Paul Coffey tried his hand at starting last season and did fairly well. A move to the bullpen showed his true ability. Coffey throws heat, plain and simple. By working with vets David Weathers and Kent Mercker, Coffey could develop into a decent closer. Weathers, Mercker and Coffey will be a Three-Headed Monster at the closer spot until he develops.
Reds fans have also been waiting for Ryan Wagner to have his breakout year. Wagner has fought injuries most of his short career, but is healthy for the start of spring training.
Another young pitcher could emerge as a solid reliever. Matt Belisle made 55 relief appearances last year and showed a fastball that flirts with 95 mph and a curve that could be deadly.
The rest of the pen is filled with young pitchers who could break out. Luke Hudson missed most of last year with shoulder problems and found himself on the losing end of a starter experiment. A good year in the pen could bring out his potential. Keep an eve out for Brian Shackleford and Josh Hancock too.
Reason to Get Excited: Coffey, Wagner, and Belisle could become tough, intimidating, and (dare I say) nasty.
Everybody Cool Out: A weak starting rotation means they’ll throw a lot more innings than they should be…a recipe for disaster.
Overall:
Reason to Get Excited: New ownership, and new front office, and a lineup that oozes offense could have the Reds challenge the slipping Cardinals or the aging Astros for the NL Central title.
Everybody Cool Out: Same old pitching woes will prevent that from happening. My prediction: Third place in the NL Central behind St. Louis and Milwaukee.
- Kyle Lewis
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