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5 Reasons Notre Dame will beat USC
Tony Castricone, College Football reporter, 1460 The Fan in Columbus
(Tony is a great cfb expert, I've had him on my show before and he's always a great guest, and, luckily for us, is also a great writer. Some of his work will appear on the Rant, but you can find all of his work at www.collegefootballfix.com
-Mark Chalifoux)
October 12, 2005 -- One of the reasons college football is so great is the parity that exists within the game. Unfortunately, that parity isn’t always evenly dispersed throughout the country, which gives teams from certain conferences have inherent advantages at playing for the national championship. The Big 12 and Pac 10 are arguably two of the weakest BCS conferences, yet because of the top-heavy nature of the leagues, those teams often have an easier time of running the table there than they would in the SEC or Big Ten. Thus, we will have another Big 12 vs. Pac 10 match-up in the national championship game, with USC battling Texas in Pasadena after both teams race thru their conference schedules. That is, of course, as long as the Trojans hold off Notre Dame this weekend.
But I think the Irish are prepared to take on the number-one team in the land. Winners of 27 in a row, USC takes its Trojan horse and its vaunted winning streak to South Bend this weekend, and the Trojans are going to run into a buzz-saw. Without further ado, here are five good reasons Notre Dame knocks off USC this weekend, ending the Trojans’ run of 23 straight weeks atop the AP poll.
5. The Notre Dame seniors
The Fighting Irish return 11 starters on the offensive side of the ball this year, and have a grand total of 32 seniors on this year’s roster. What is really unique about Notre Dame is how they continue to recruit players with passion for the program. Notre Dame student-athletes don’t go there because they were rejected by Tennessee or Michigan. They go there to realize a dream. Those dreams are created by hearing story after story about the mystique and the legends of Notre Dame lore.
The pride Notre Dame players have is so much more than personal. It’s about living up to the standards set by Knute Rockne and Frank Leahy and Ara Parseghian and Lou Holtz. It’s about the Golden Dome and Touchdown Jesus. It’s about all the players, from Rudy to Rocket Ismail. For the players, it’s about keeping the promise you make each time you leave the lockeroom and slap the sign that reads “Play Like A Champion Today.”
That’s why the 32 seniors mean so much in this ballgame. Those seniors haven’t just lost three games in a row to USC; they’ve been embarrassed. They were smacked around to the tune of a 44-13 drubbing in 2002. They were humiliated on their home field by USC 45-14 in 2003. They were blown out of the second half in a 41-10 loss in 2004.
The rivalry between these two teams means too much. The 77th meeting of the Irish and the Trojans won’t be as brutal as the last three. The players can’t accept that, and their coach, Charlie Weis, who is as ingrained as any to the Notre Dame fraternity, won’t allow it.
4. The Notre Dame defense is underrated
The constant criticism of Notre Dame’s defense is mind-boggling. The Irish haven’t produced the greatest defense numbers to start the season, but they haven’t been playing push-overs either.
The point is this: compared to the way other teams have fared against Notre Dame’s schedule, the Irish ‘D’ is actually above average. Michigan State may have rolled up 488 yards on Notre Dame, but that game included overtime, and the Spartans are actually averaging 566 yards per game. Michigan State has put up 586 yards per game on their other four opponents, and Notre Dame’s defensive effort was the best Michigan State has faced all year.
A key measuring stick for the ND defense will come when the Spartans invade Columbus to take on the Buckeyes this weekend. Ohio State boasts one of the top five defenses in the country, so if the Spartans move the ball on the Bucks, it may demonstrate how well Notre Dame played in their lone loss this season.
Purdue is averaging 448 yards per game this season. The Boilermakers racked up just 133 yards in the first half against the Irish before blowing by Notre Dame’s second team in the second half of a 49-28 loss.
And the Irish have done a remarkable job at forcing turnovers this year. What’s even better is when they get those turnovers. Notre Dame has ended five drives this season by forcing turnovers inside the ND 10-yard-line. There's something to be said for this team's ability to take the ball away when backed up against the wall. If they had one, two, even three turnovers inside their own 10, you could argue luck was invovled. But Notre Dame has forced five turnovers inside their own 10-yard-line in five games, and Michigan had marched to the 12-yard-line before a Notre Dame interception kept the Irish ahead.
3. USC's first half struggles
The Trojans have done a poor job at jumping out to commanding leads the last three teams, which is why I think this team is overrated from a historical perspective. USC should be the top-ranked team in the country, and I think their coaching, their All-American roster, their ability to win in the second half, and the fact that they're defending champions all lend to their ranking. But best team of all time? C'mon people! If USC is the best team of all time, the Pac 10 is the best conference of all time, not the 2nd weakest in this year's BCS. Make up your mind.
USC crawled to a 31-28 win at Stanford last year. That Stanford team was bad. I mean, 4-7 bad. 4-7 in the Pac 10 bad. They won by eight at Oregon State, and by just five at UCLA. They battled back from 18 points down to win at Arizona State.
Great teams are allowed to have close calls, but there is one consistancy with all the aforementioned games. They were all on the road. Notre Dame's home crowd has never gone anywhere, despite the team's struggles of the past few years. And if USC falls behind by two or three possessions early in the game, it might be over. No disrespect intended to Coach Teevens, Coach Riley, Coach Dorrell or Coach Koetter, but this is Charlie Weis. And unlike the guys I just listed whom you may have never heard of, Weis' offensive prowess will not allow the Irish to go three-and-out each possession of the second half to let USC back in the game.
2. Notre Dame's offense can control the tempo of the game
The Notre Dame offense has won the time of possession battle in literally every game this season. They've dominated time of possession in the last three weeks. They've operated with efficiency and have moved the ball at will.
USC's defense is capable of giving up points. A weak Arizona team scored 21 on the Trojans last week at USC. If Notre Dame can simply continue to get first downs and keep USC's offense off the field, the Irish will be in great shape. All they really need to do is keep the game close until midway thru the fourth quarter. At that point, it's a toss-up, especially considering how Brady Quinn has demonstrated his ability to march the team downfield.
1. The Irish will win because this year, they can
When a great head coach takes over a football team that is hungry to win, remarkable things can happen, especially in rivalry games. The Ohio State vs. Michigan rivalry is a perfect example.
In 1969, Ohio State truly had one of the most dominant teams in the history of college football. After winning the national title in '68, the Buckeyes beat everyone on their schedule by at least 27 points, rolling up an invincible 9-0 record. But Michigan, led by first-year head coach Bo Schembechler, jumped out to a 24-12 halftime lead, and eventually won by the same score.
In 2001, the Buckeyes visited a favored Michigan squad, but led by first-year coach Jim Tressel, who made it a priority from day one to beat the Maize and Blue, the Buckeyes took an early 23-0 lead and held on for a 26-20 win.
The talent was left in place for Notre Dame to succeed, because Tyrone Willingham was a solid recruiter. But the attitude has changed, and all the records USC has set in the past three years need to be thrown out the window for this contest.
It's been long-overdue for both the Irish and the rest of the nation. Notre Dame will play sound offense, play mistake-free football, force a critical turnover, and knock off the USC Trojans Saturday.
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