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The Booms & Busts of the NBA Draft - June 26th, 2004
Supplied from Sportsfan Magazine
By revenashoops@hotmail.com">Nicholas Prevenas


Usually, when the NBA Finals end, basketball columns tend to stretch a little thin. This offseason is definitely an exception to the rule.

With almost all of the big names in basketball on the block or possibly on the block, my head is literally spinning. To top it all off, the most exciting and unpredictable draft in NBA history has finally come to a close. So let’s try to make sense of all the maddness, shall we? Keep in mind, I’m not a talent scout. I’m just an obsessive basketball fan who’s almost never wrong about the draft.

Eight high schoolers were drafted Thursday night, led by uber-phenom Dwight Howard. Since Orlando used the No. 1 pick on a kid who by all accounts is nowhere near ready to be a dominant superstar, they’re planning on rebuilding for at least the next two years. Which means we’ll definitely see Tracy McGrady in a new uniform. All accounts had him heading to Houston for Stevie Franchise, Cuttino Mobley and Kelvin Cato, which would’ve further stunted the development of Yao and driven me further insane. The deal still might happen, but in my humble opinion, the ideal destination for T-Mac is Phoenix. Teaming him up with Amare Stoudemire would be frightening. Plus, we’d have T-Mac in the Western Conference so we can settle the Kobe (minus the 330-pound security blanket) vs. T-Mac debate once and for all.

The Charlotte Bobcats made the best selection of the draft by allowing Emeka Okafor to fall in their laps. If the back is healed (which is still a big if), he could make the All-NBA defensive team in his rookie year. He is an absolute beast on the defensive end and has the unique ability to affect the outcome of a game without having to score. This guy seems like he’d be a blast to play a pick-up game with, as long as he’s on your team. No easy shots with a guy like Okafor surrounding the rim. He’s the perfect guy to build a new franchise around. Now if Charlotte can pick up a solid veteran who can score from the perimeter, this team might win 30 games right out of the box. Ok, let’s not get carried away...

The Bobcats can thank the Clippers for gift-wrapping Okafor for them. This week has further proven that the Clippers will always be one of the most inept franchises in professional sports by trading out of the top two in a draft that featured only two potential franchise talents. Essentially, the Clippers traded Okafor and Peja Drobniak (a soft Euro jump shooter) for Shaun Livingston and Lionel Chalmers. Livingston might be a player someday, but right now, he’s 6`7" and 130 pounds. Bigger NBA guards will break him in half. By the time Livingston lives up to his vast potential, the Clippers will have given up on him and traded him to a smarter franchise. Lionel Chalmers was a nice college point guard, but he probably won’t see much playing time next year. At least in this time of chaos, we can count on the Clippers to screw up the draft.

My favorite draft night trade was the Dallas Mavericks shipping Antawn (or is it Antwon? Antwaan? I don’t know) Jamison to the Washington Wizards for the No. 5 pick (which ended up being Devin Harris), Jerry Stackhouse, and Christian Laettner. Trades like this is what keeps the majority of the Eastern Conference playing J.V. ball. Jamison is a good scorer, but have any of his teams ever won a big game? Ever? Back in his Tar Heel days, Jamison looked like a big-game type of player, but for whatever reason, it didn’t translate into the NBA. So they’ll team him up with Gilbert Arenas, two guys who proved they didn’t like to pass it to each other in Golden State two years ago. Perhaps Jamison will tear up the Eastern Conference and give Arenas room to work his magic. But since it’s the Wizards, they’ll be back in the lotto.

Meanwhile, the Mavericks pick up a young stud at point guard to help Steve Nash pack his bags out of town. Harris, Marquis Daniels, and Josh Howard will make a phenomenal young back court, assuming all of them suit up for Dallas next year. Right now, the Mavericks have more tradable assets than any team in the history of the NBA. I’m really hoping they end up dealing for the Diesel. Mark Cuban can package Michael Finley, Steve Nash (via sign-and-trade), Stackhouse, Harris, Daniels (via sign-and-trade as well), Howard, and Antoine Walker (whose ridiculous contract comes off the books after next season) in any way he sees fit to bring Shaq into the fold. If the Lakers back off on their Nowitzki demands (Cuban is crazy, but he wouldn’t deal a scoring machine just entering his prime for a three-year Shaq rental), they can bolster their lineup with the youth and athleticism they so desperately need to complement Kobe. No other team can offer the Lakers what Dallas can, and no other situation would be more mutually beneficial for the Mavs and Shaq. Texas officially becomes the basketball capital of the universe if all this goes down (and if T-Mac ends up in Houston, jeez). The Shaq/Roger Clemens parallels will be jarring.

My second favorite draft day deal was the Denver Nuggets drafting Jameer Nelson after he inexplicably slid to them at No. 20 and immediately dealing him to Orlando for their first rounder next year. There was nobody on the board that the Nuggs needed to draft, so they took the co-National Player of the Year on a team that won 30 games in a row and dealt him to a team that will almost certainly be in the lottery next year. Kiki, you have officially been given a get-out-of-jail free card for that horrendous Nikoloz Tskitisvilli pick two years ago. Have I mentioned that I love the Nuggets? Go Melo!

The Ten Rookies Most Likely to have an Impact Next Year:

1. Emeka Okafor: I love this guy. He may never average 20 points a game, but he’ll be a terror on both ends, especially on the boards.

2. Ben Gordon: What can I say, I love the UConn guys. Gordon can score from anywhere, and he’ll have plenty of opportunities to shoot on a Bulls team that couldn’t score over 100 points in an empty gym last season.

3. Luol Deng: This guy slipped because he’s not a freakish athlete and he doesn’t have much "upside." Do these idiots actually watch basketball? Deng is the kind of guy that makes everyone around him better and he always plays under control. He’s going to be a very solid pro and he’ll have an immediate impact on Chicago next year. Needless to say, this is the first year in a loooong time that I’ve liked what the Bulls have done in the draft, even if I thought Deng should’ve gone No. 3 and Gordon No. 7. But it worked out for them, so I can’t criticize.

4. Devin Harris: No matter where he ends up, Dallas, the Lakers, or whoever, Harris is ready to play the point right now. He’s got a lethal first step and good range on his jumper to keep defenders honest. He also knows how to make a basic post entry pass and he knows how to throw a proper bounce pass. Those might not sound like spectacular skills, but there’s maybe a dozen guys in the NBA that can do it. And Harris is one of them.

5. Delonte West: I was almost certain that the Celtics would botch this draft. Danny Ainge appears completely clueless on how to run an NBA franchise at this point. But with his 24th pick, he chose a guy who might not wow scouts with his vertical leap or his "upside," but anyone who watched St. Joseph’s last year knows this kid can play. Put him in the same category as Tayshaun Prince, Carlos Boozer, and Luke Walton. West will get it done.

6. Andre Iguodala: Aside from having the coolest name in this year’s draft, Iguodala can ‘D’ up like nobody in this year’s crop. Like Okafor, he can affect the outcome of the game and only take 5 shots. There are questions about his jumper, but I think those will be answered this year while he makes a push for Rookie of the Year. Plus, he’s the perfect running mate for Allen Iverson, since he won’t demand the ball or force AI to alter his game.

7. Luke Jackson: Larry Bird’s dream come-true. An American white guy with some game. Jackson’s game reminds me a bit of Brent Barry’s, except I think Jackson is a superior ball handler. He’ll have to work on his defense, but he’s going to be the ideal wingman for LeBron. Jackson can penetrate, finish, hit the spot-up 3, and has one of the best mid-range games out of anyone available in this year’s draft. Jackson also has terrific passing instincts and will mesh with LeBron perfectly. Cavs fans should be very excited about this pick.

8. Josh Childress: Winner of the 2004 NBA Draft’s "Best Hair" award. He couldn’t even fit all of his hair under his hat. He’s a little lower on this list simply because he was taken by the Hawks, aka NBA Purgatory. Even though he’ll get 30 minutes a night, it’ll be a depressing 30 minutes. Regardless, this kid’s length and overall skill set is pretty impressive. The George Gervin comparison has been thrown around ever since his junior year at Stanford, which is pretty good company to be mentioned in. I’m hoping he gets traded really soon to a team that can maximize his abilities (i.e. the Minnesota Timberwolves).

9. Kirk Snyder: When the Utah Jazz drafted poor Kirk, he had the same look that Steve Francis had when the Vancouver (now Memphis) Grizzlies drafted him with the third pick of the 1998 draft. It looked like someone punched Snyder in the stomach. But the good news for Snyder is he’ll learn the pro game from the legendary Jerry Sloan and he’ll get a shot to start immediately. Also, he’ll get to play alongside Andrei Kirelinko, a personal favorite of mine. I’m really rooting for Snyder this year. His play in the NCAA Tournament made a believer out of me.

10. Rafael Araujo: Many people might think the Tornto Raptors reached a little, taking him 8th overall. And those people might be right, since Araujo has probably peaked as a player since he’s already 24 years old. But the fact remains that the Raptors needed a center in the worst way (so uber-freak Chris Bosh can play the 4) and Araujo is the strongest guy in the draft. I’ve watched this guy very closely for the past two years (since I am a University of Wyoming alum, who plays BYU two-three times a season), and Araujo will hit the boards, battle on the blocks, knock down the 15-foot jumper, and occasionally punch someone out. That’s his game, for better or worse. And he’s exactly what Toronto needs.

The Five Guaranteed Busts:

1. Robert Swift: A "workout sensation," Swift never actually met with anyone in the Sonics organization prior to the draft. They took him on a gut feeling and his showing in the McDonalds All-American game. Basically, he’s a lottery pick because he’s 7-feet tall and can run without falling over. That’s it.

2. Pavel Podkolzine: The Mavericks might’ve screwed this pick up. From everything I’ve read about the guy, he’s a whiner, he’s soft, and he doesn’t work very hard. But since he’s 7`5", someone was going to feel obligated to take a chance on him. Don’t the Mavericks already have a freakishly tall underachiever? I guess Cuban felt like Shawn Bradley needed someone to go clothes shopping with.

3. Sebastian Telfair: Ok, so he’s 6-feet tall on tip-toes, can’t shoot, weighs maybe 150 pounds, hasn’t been in a classroom in about 5 years, already has millions guaranteed from Adidas, runs with a shady crowd who tells him he’s better than he is, and he’s heading to Portland to hang out with model citizens Damon Stoudemire, Ruben Patterson, and Zach Randolph? But he can throw a wicked no-look pass. I’m sorry, but the Trailblazers swung and missed with the 13th pick.

4. Dorell Wright: Maybe someday could possibly play kind of like a poor man’s T-Mac. Doesn’t sound like a very ringing endorsement to me. Kedrick Brown and DeShawn Stevenson have a new member in their club.

5. Josh Smith: He needed to go to college in the worst way. A run-and-jump athletic marvel, but with no refined basketball skills. Sound familiar? Darius Miles anyone? I’m rooting for Smith, simply because he’s amazing in the air, but his jump shot is uglier than Ben Wallace’s and he’s going to play the 3.

My Three Sleepers:

1. Jameer Nelson: What can I say? I’m a sucker for guys who lead their teams to 30-game winning streaks. I’m a sucker for guys who have a sense of the big moment. I’m a sucker for point guards who are build like fullbacks. He’s got everything except height, but he won’t let that stop him. He’ll make a terrific combo with Dwight Howard if Orlando decides to keep both of them.

2. Chris Duhon: He’s this year’s "how did he slip into the second round?!?" guy of this year’s draft. Started for four years at the nation’s premier college basketball program in Duke. Even though he didn’t put up huge numbers, he did what he had to do to make his team better. He’ll be a great second rotation point guard for the Bulls, giving Kirk Hinrich a breather when he needs it. I never thought I’d say it, but I think the Bulls might’ve had the best draft this year.

3. Sergei Monia: Portland redeems themselves from the Telfair debacle at #13 by drafting who might be the next Manu Ginobili at #23. Granted, I have no information to back up that claim, but I have a good feeling about Sergei.

Ok, that’s all I got for this week. I’m sure next week will be crammed full of mind-boggling trades, proposals, and demands. I don’t even know what to do with all of this information, but hopefully next week will be just as entertaining. Email me at revenashoops@hotmail.com">prevenashoops@hotmail.com, even with nice comments about Sebastian Telfair.





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