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First, let me preface the following article by making a few important statements. It is about football, which is widely accepted as the most masculine sport around — so if any of my pointers prove unhelpful, misleading, or blatantly incorrect…well, you’ll know why.
1- I just watched “Win a Date with Tad Hamilton.” Not on a date, because that just might be acceptable. Not even with a female friend. By myself. On my couch.
2- I was cleaning out my CD collection the other day and I came across a Celine Dion album that I had purchased sometime after Titanic came out because I wanted “My Heart Will Go On.” The album is entitled “Let’s Talk About Love.” After staring at it for what seemed like 10 minutes, I was unable to throw it in the trash bag at my feet (its irrelevant as to whether I proceeded to play the song or not).
3- I thought of a bunch of other reasons that my masculinity should currently be in question, and came up with a few valid points, like the fact that I’d just reheated a burger in the microwave because there was about a nanometer of pink in the middle or because I’d just sold my month-old Jetta because I couldn’t drive a car with a stick. But no, the 3rd and best reason was that I really liked “Win a Date.”
With that said, lets talk about fantasy football....:-). On draft day, everyone is always looking for a way to one-up the next guy — a tip from an insider magazine, or a great pick based on some algorithm they cooked up on their computer (maybe that’s never happened, but I like to pretend that there’s a big “Fantasy Draft Headquarters” somewhere deep in the ESPN complex where Sean Salibury and John Clayton quit bickering for 5 minutes and figure out the best fantasy team in the world using a supercomputer) are options you might choose to utilize. But, the problem with those insider tips and algorithms is, there’s always a chance they’ll be wrong — especially those damned algorithms. So, I’ve come up with a list of 5 infallible tips that will make your fantasy draft-day experience as efficient and successful as it can possibly be (just remember my 3 disclaimers at the beginning…damn Tad Hamilton, I still can’t believe Rosalee almost picked him.)
The Tips
1. If you can select 2 solid running backs, before picking up your starting quarterback, do it. Seriously, this is the most important one, so I wanted to get it out of the way before you guys get bored at stop paying attention. If you have 2 front-line starting running backs that don’t get hurt all season, you’ll win your league. Not a doubt in my mind, that’s just how fantasy leagues work. Now some of you are probably, thinking, what a dumbass, having a great quarterback is the key to winning. Nope. Wrong. Dead wrong. There are a couple of reasons to this, and since I’m all about lists in this article, I’m going to make another one.
- Great running backs, assuming no injury, always have good-to-great fantasy seasons. Great quarterbacks, sadly, do not (remember Gannon last year? Best QB of 2002, but in 2003, pre-injury, he was awful). Backs always get their yards and get their touches inside the 5-yard line. My buddy and I have had a long conversation about this, and we’ve agreed that if you have, say, Clinton Portis and Shaun Alexander, you are better off than if you had Portis and Brett Favre, or Donovan McNabb, or Steve McNair…or yes, I’m going to say it, Peyton Manning. Why? Because even though Manning might put up better totals at the end of the season, you are going to get guaranteed production from Alexander almost every week. Even against a tough defense, he’s probably still going to get some goal line touches. With any quarterback, including Manning, who is by far the best bet for a quarterback out there, you’re guaranteed at least 4 games a year where he isn’t going to do a thing. Check the stats. I’m right — Manning makes up for those 4 bad games with 4 games where he throws 5 touchdowns and racks up 350 yards to get his end of year numbers.
- Running backs make the best trade bait. Every league will always have a few teams that end up having to start someone ridiculous, someone who has no business starting, like Trung Canidate, due to injury or poor drafting. Forget good players, the managers of these teams would give up their mom and first born child (or, in the case of my friends, their beer and seat on the couch) for the chance to start a running back who hasn’t been added and dropped from the waiver wire 15 times. There are always decent replacement QB’s to be found on the waiver wire…not the same with running backs. So if you have a 2 good backs sitting pretty in your starting lineup, but you’re being forced to start Bobby Engram and Joe Jurevicius at wide receiver, then maybe you’d like to give up your second running back, who is quite the gem for your buddy, for two more serviceable receivers (I’ve seen this happen, more than once.)
- If you make the Super Bowl, you want two star backs rather than a star running back and a star QB on your roster. No contest.
2. Take Tony Gonzalez. Whether your league requires a tight end or not, take him. He is easily the best tight end available (and he’ll always be available, you just have to figure out when to take him)— he averaged just under 10 points a game in my league last season, which meant that if he as a WR, he would have been in the top 20 at that position. The only other tight end who was close was Shannon Sharpe, and that was because he scored something like four touchdowns and caught for 200 yards against crazy lace> one day. Gonzalez is the man. He puts up his numbers every week, you can count on him to get you 70 yards every week and give you a touchdown 2 out of every 3 weeks. The Chief offense is that good, and he is that good. The other receivers in the bottom half of the top 20 will not be that consistent, I can guarantee you that. Guys like Darrell Jackson, Peter Warrick, and Isaac Bruce might end up with more points than Gonzalez, but they are going to rack up 20 points one week and 2 the next, because they are only the second receiving option on the team.
The problem with wanting to take Gonzalez is this — you don’t want to take him too soon, because tight ends never go in the opening rounds. You don’t want to take him in the 3rd round when you can get him in the 5th. There is always a run on tight ends and kickers…guess when the tight end run is going to be from past experience, and take him before the run starts. 4th or 5th (so precise, I know) round is my guess as to when the run may start…maybe later, but definitely not earlier.
3. Always be sure to make fun of the latest selection. Unless a pick is completely unassailable (which, unless it was Priest Holmes, it almost never is), you need to harass the drafter. Granted, you can’t do it after every pick because you want to be invited back for the following season, and because the guy you are pestering knows about that thing you did with that girl that night in college. But don’t worry, if you’re not doing the instigating, someone else should be. In case you aren’t sure of quite how to do this, let me give you a few examples of some zingers that you can toss around…the goal is to make the drafter lose all confidence in his ability to make a good pick and to become hopelessly flustered as his next pick approaches.
Here are some possible situations, with the necessary response.
Your friend Steve picks Brett Favre in the second round. “Guys! What year is it?” Someone in the room replies, “You a f***ing retard?” 2004!” You respond, “Really, because I think Steve thinks its 1995. You do know what year it is, right, Steve?”
Your friend Bill picks Jamal Lewis in the first round (Bill lived in his son’s tree house all summer long and doesn’t know what’s going on). “Hey Bill, maybe with the consolation prize for finishing last you can help pay for part of his bail.”
Your friend Mike picks Ashlie Lelie. “Isn’t he from lace>?” you ask. “Yeah, so what?” Mike asks. “I was just wondering….(momentary silence)…I have an aunt named Ashley.”
Your friend Bob picks Mike Vanderjagt in the 6th round. “Bob? Was there a rules change in the NFL?” “Why?” Bob will ask. “Because I didn’t know that they let kickers start scoring touchdowns.”
Your friend John picks Josh Reed in the 5th round. “Damn, I didn’t realize it was the 11th round already! Did someone make my picks in the last 6 rounds for me?”
Here are some generic responses that work for nearly any selection after the fourth round.
“Does he even start?”
“Didn’t he just get busted for snorting coke?”
“He’ll be injured by week 6.”
“Aren’t these the same guys you picked last year?”
“That guy isn’t on any of my lists.”
“Didn’t he play in NFL Europe over the summer?”
4. Never, ever pick a #2 receiver before a #1 receiver. (i had to cut the explanation out due to space restraints...the were actually 7 tips originally...this one is pretty self explanatatory, but people still do it all the time)
5. Head into draft-day with a strategy. Most drafters seem to stare at their player ranking list like it was written by the God of Football and make their selections based solely on the player’s predicted output. If not that, then they look for names that they recognize once the first few rounds are in the books.
As much as you’d like to believe that these writers know whether Javon Walker will score 3 touchdowns or 6 touchdowns, let me tell you something — once you get out of the top 20 or 25 at RB and WR, the top 10 or 15 at QB, an the top 5 at TE, the guy who slices your roast beef at the Stop&Shop deli counter has about as good of a chance as these guys do of determining who is going to have a solid year. So, instead of mindlessly following the numbers, use a strategy when selecting the players that will have an unhealthy amount of control over your life for the next 4 months. Here are a few tactics that you might consider using on the big day.
Pick a team that you think is going to rack up the points on offense and ride ‘em. Some might call this putting all your eggs in one basket, and I would call them wrong. I came within points of winning the Super Bowl last year by doing this, and I fully plan on doing it again. If you do it properly, there are several egg baskets involved, because you’ll still have plenty of other quality guys on your team if the plan fails. Let me explain how it works.
This year, the Giants have the second easiest schedule in the league, and you predict that they are going to take advantage of this. Along with the fresh faces at quarterback, they are bound to rebound from last year’s shoddy performance. So, here’s how you approach draft day. You may have to take these guys a round early to make sure you get them, but it’s better than shooting around in the dark. Take Tiki Barber in the 2nd round, Toomer in the 3rd, Warner in the 4th (I have no idea when Warner or Manning will go, but you can bet that I’ll rip on the guy that takes him, using the “what round is this?” line…unless of course, I’m the one taking him, which is entirely possible), and Shockey in the 6th. Now, you still have the first round to take a star back from another team, and the 5th round to take another good receiver. Now just hope that Manning slips a little and you can snag him in the 7th or 8th round.
So, what are the chances of you, with your incredible ability to predict when these guys will be drafted, getting all 5 of these guys? Not great, but if you go in trying to get this accomplished, I bet you get 4 of 5, easy. You’ll still have 2 non-Giant high quality starters (and, it’s not like these Giant players are louts, Barber and Toomer are good fantasy bets).
The key to pulling this off on draft day is selecting a team that has good players, but not great ones that will go in the same early round. You’d be hard pressed to do this with the Colts, because Manning, Harrison, and James (assuming he doesn’t pack up his gold teeth and head off to lace> to replace my least favorite athlete in the world next to A-Rod and Clemens) are all likely to go early. San DiegoHawaiiMiamiMinnesotalace> might not work either, because Culpepper and Moss will both go first round.
But here are some teams you could do it with, besides the Giants. Chiefs, Saints, Seahawks. Green, Brooks, Hasselbeck…Holmes, McAllister, Alexander…Gonzalez, Horn, Robinson….see the trend? Good quarterbacks, great running backs, decent receivers…this means they will be separated on draft day — if you make the effort, you can probably snag all 3 of the players.
Think about this one. Not only can it help you win, but it’s also fun to follow one team in particular, especially if their game is on TV and you can scream and get excited whenever anyone touches the ball on offense (note — I wouldn’t try this strategy with your favorite team, because if you’re like me, you’re likely to have a heart attack if you rely solely on one team for your football happiness).
Go for quarterbacks and receivers on teams with a terrible defense. This won’t always work, because some teams are so pitiful that even when they are down 28-0 they still can’t get a few garbage-time TD’s (aka the Chargers last year with Flutie and Boston). But normally, if team is giving up boatloads of points, they will need to air it out when they get down in a game, and score you a few much-needed points as they attempt to get back into the game. Think Moss and Culpepper, Green and Gonzalez, and Anquan Boldin in Arizona last year. This point may be even more helpful post-draft…pay attention to which defenses are looking particularly awful in the first few games of the season, and swipe a lesser-known receiver from this team off of the waiver wire.
Select backups and rookies in the late rounds. Every time that I watch someone select a Darnerian McCants or a David Terrell in the 12th round, I snicker quietly, shake my head and look on my schedule to see when I play this character. Honestly…what is the point!! You know that this guy is going to do nothing at all for you…in fact you have a better chance of seeing GW and Michael Moore playing bocce together than you do of seeing this player put up numbers that are of any help. So why draft him? The late rounds can be useful, don’t waste them. In rounds 12-16, these are the players I would select.
- The backup to my star running back. If you have Priest Holmes but not Larry Johnson, you might as well let Mike Tyson manage your fantasy team. If Holmes gets hurt, Johnson becomes a top 10 back, just because of the team he’s on. It’s like having free insurance, because he’s filling up a spot that would otherwise be taken by…Darnerian McCants.
- The backup to my quarterback. You hopefully are starting a quarterback on a team that puts up some points. If he gets hurt, your backup is likely to be as good if not better as a quarterback on a crumby team whom you have sitting on your bench or just picked up off the wire.
- Two rookies. Every year, there will be a few previously unknown players who makes a huge impact. Last year, it was Anquan Boldin and Domanick Davis. You’ve got nothing to lose in the final rounds, and everything to gain. So take a few shots on some random dudes no one has ever heard of. Sure, your pals will ask if these guys are on the practice squad or on the actual team, but you’ll be the one laughing if any of them pan out. They may never actually play a down during the season — but again, it’s better than McCants. “Solid backups” are useless in fantasy football. Remember that, and draft guys who could be starters. Here are a few rookies I’m looking at; mainly because their teams are a little thin at the position (these players will all be available late.) Devard Darling (WR, Baltimore), Darius Watts (WR, Denver), Greg Jones (RB, Jacksonville), Sami Parker (WR, Kansas City)
Select the best available player. This is not what everyone does. Everyone goes down their list and selects the best predicted average. I’m going to say this one more time….consistency! Go for the consistent guy! Consisteny! Argghhh!!!
Yikes…I’m glad that’s over with. Follow my 7 rules and you’ll be the envy of everyone on draft day. You might even avoid finishing in the cellar for the 3rd year in a row (but, probably not, because your draft is only as good as the moves you make throughout the season). In fact, I’ve got to start thinking about my first trade of the year…if only I could get “My Heart Will Go On” out of my head!!
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