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Five Observations:
1. The Denver Broncos defensive front seven has improved significantly over last year’s unit but one glaring weakness still remains: sack total. The Broncos rank dead last in the league with only 10 sacks and while they may have the most athletic grouping of linebackers and an excess of depth on the line, they will still get pistol-pumped by teams like the Indianapolis Colts come playoff time if they can not sack or pressure the quarterback.
2. We knew the Colts had a stellar offense and it has become evident this year that they have a much improved defense to match but what has impressed me the most is their discipline. They are playing very Patriot-like (well, when the Patriots were dominant) as they are third in the league in turnover margin and they have the least amount of total penalty yards in the NFL. Not only are they very tough to beat, they don’t make many mistakes to give their opponents second chances. If they manage to secure home-field advantage for the AFC playoffs, it’s tough to see anyone beating them.
3. Is Chad Johnson the next Terrell Owens? He talks a ton of trash, taunts, complains when his quarterback does not throw him the ball and is extremely cocky. At this point, he’s not a cancer like Owens is but keep in mind that Owens, and even Randy Moss, were fairly content when their teams were winning. It wasn’t until the ship turned south in Philadelphia, San Francisco and Minnesota that Owens and Moss became major distractions. What if the Bengals enter next season with even higher expectations and the team starts 1-4? Marvin Lewis has a tight leash on the situation and is doing his best to quell the situation but only time will tell.
4. The Patriots are finished. That’s right, I said it. They are not a serious factor in the Super Bowl picture this year and they would be lucky to even get into the playoffs. It seems like their injury list grows every week, their left side of the offensive line is starting two rookies (which is blatantly evident), Corey Dillon is playing at about 70%-80% and the defense, which is ranked 31st overall simply can not stop anyone. Factor in that Bill Belichick’s defense only has 13 sacks this year and six takeaways – one better than the Houston Texans – and it is pretty clear that the Patriots can only do so much with limited personnel. They will bounce back next year, though.
5. What a year it has been for short, speedy wideouts. Steve Smith, Santana Moss, Joey Galloway and Terry Glenn are all no taller than 5-11 and weigh no more than 197lbs but they rank in the top seven for receiving yards. Smith and Moss, who are locks for the Pro Bowl, are leading the league receiving yards and both are on pace to eclipse the 1700-yard mark. The key for these receivers has been their blazing speed as they have consistently beaten man coverage, cover-two zones and safety-corner brackets. Moss and Glenn lead all receivers in catches of 40+ yards with five while Smith leads the league in receptions of 20+ yards with 14.
Four Picks:
St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
If the Rams lose this game, they will have to look for a path to the playoffs as a wild card. Look for them to fired up after losing earlier in the season to Seattle. The Rams bye came at a good time as Marc Bulger, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce and Leonard Little were allowed time to heal. Last time these two teams met Mike Martz was the head coach but with him out of the picture, the Rams offense is completely different as they have found some balance by handing off the ball consistently to their sledgehammer Steven Jackson. The Rams still own the mentally-weak Seahawks.
Rams +7
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Gus Frerotte is clearly not the quarterback of the future in Miami, and his play has quite frankly eaten Nick Saban, but this week they are facing a battered and bruised Patriots squad who can’t stop the run. With Saban interchanging Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown, the Dolphins running backs are very fresh in the fourth quarter which does not bode well for a thin Pats defense. They have as many as 14 players who are questionable and since they are not forcing many turnovers or quarterback sacks, they might end up on the field much longer than they can handle.
Dolphins +3
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills
The Chiefs offensive line might be sub par at the tackle positions if Willie Roaf misses another game this weekend but that is not too much of a concern because they will look to pound the ball up the middle. The Bills are hoping that defensive tackle Sam Adams can respond well after a benching otherwise with Will Shields, Casey Weigmann and Brian Waters going up against Tim Anderson and Justin Bannan, the Bills will get gashed for at least 150 rushing yards.
Chiefs +3
San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears
Any success the 49ers have had in the past couple of weeks has stemmed from running the ball but the Bears and their stout front seven will cut that off to keep the Niners in long third down situations. On the flipside, the 49ers front seven has played exceptionally well this year but they can not handle playing more than 32 minutes a game. This game should be fairly tight at halftime but the Bears will wear down the Niners by the fourth quarter.
Bears -12
Injury Impact:
-Chiefs rushing offense without LT Willie Roaf (hamstring, unlikely to play) vs Bills run defense
-Seahawks run defense without LB Jamie Sharper (out) and possibly DT Marcus Tubbs and SS Michael Boulware (both questionable) vs Rams Steven Jackson
-49ers rushing offense without C Jeremy Newberry (doubtful) vs Bears DT Tommie Harris, Tank Johnson and Ian Scott
-Cardinals pass rush without DE Bertrant Berry (out) vs Lions offensive line
-Eagles pass offense without TE L.J. Smith (questionable, concussion) vs Cowboys secondary
-Vikings secondary without CB Fred Smoot (out) vs WR Plaxico Burress and WR Amani Toomer
-Packers rushing offense without RB Tony Fisher (doubtful, unlikely to play) vs Falcons run defense
Two Games to Watch:
Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders
Mike Shanahan is 15-5 vs his old team since they took him off the payroll.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Sandwich game for the Colts with Cincinnati on tap next week, let’s see if they stay focused.
Golokhov Power Ranking:
The rating for each team combines: strength of schedule, offensive and defensive productiveness, turnover ratio and special teams all relative to the rest of the league’s performance. Official statistics that are used to calculate the ratings are provided by NFL.com.
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