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Five Observations
1. Everybody, welcome back the old Philadelphia Eagles. No, not your grandpa's Eagles, rather the ones from the three recently failed NFC Championship games. That's the team that used to man up on defense with a ferocious, physical and attacking style. The Eagles know that without Owens and without a serious running game (and possibly without Donovan McNabb), they have to win games on defense. They still have one of the better defenses in the NFL but they have been slacking over the past year since they've had a much more competent offense for support.
2. Several veteran quarterbacks have revived their careers this season (Brian Griese, Mark Brunell, Drew Bledsoe) but one QB who has regressed is the Miami Dolphins’ Gus Frerotte. He's thrown the ball well at times and the coaching staff has patched together a mediocre offensive line to keep him intact but his poor late-game decisions have paralyzed the team. More recently, he couldn't get the ball into the end zone with four shots inside the Patriots 10-yard line and he threw a brutal interception in the red zone late in the game against the Falcons the previous week. The Dolphins are rebuilding but it's hard to see Frerotte in their long term plans.
3. One of the main reasons Jim Fassel was fired as the New York Giants head coach in 2003 was that the Giants simply were not a very disciplined team under him. Fast forward to 2005 and the Giants still have a long way to go, even under the authoritarian Tom Coughlin. They have amassed the most penalty yards in the league with 1277 in nine games and after last week’s display by the Minnesota Vikings’ return units, the Giants still have a long way to go on special teams as well.
4. It’s week 11 – you know what that means? It means that by now the Arizona Cardinals and Detroit Lions should be decimated by injuries. The Cardinals have DE Bert Berry, DE Calvin Pace, DT Kenny King, DT Russell Davis, DT Langston Moore on injured reserve and CB Antrel Rolle is also not likely to return this season. On offense, WR Bryant Johnson and G Elton Brown are out for this week, WR Anquan Boldin and OLB Karlos Dansby are nicked up and questionable, while G Reggie Wells is done for the season. For Detroit, the injured reserve list is much shorter but the Lions “talented” WRs have been in and out of the lineup all season (injury and suspension), CB Dre Bly has missed four weeks, their whole linebacking corps (Earl Holmes, Boss Bailey and Tedy Lehman) are not expected to play this week and obviously QB Jeff Garcia is questionable. Injuries, for the most part, are generally bad luck but at some point you have to wonder about the conditioning of these teams since they have so many players injured every year.
5. Are the San Diego Chargers going to blow another fourth quarter lead or at least give head coach Marty Schottenheimer another scare? Well they’ve only done it four times but each occasion has resulted in a loss. You can pin the blame directly on the Chargers secondary, particularly their cornerbacks. CBs Quentin Jammer, Jamar Fletcher and Sammy Davis are all former first-round picks that have proved to be decent but none have developed into reliable top-flight corners. Obviously with the Chargers leading in the late stages of the game, this grouping is called upon for support but they have not been reliable.
Four Picks
Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are no longer the Bungles but they are definitely not the Colts. This game will boil down to the Colts’ attempt to control the game clock and keep the Bengals defense off the field. Well that should work in Indy’s favor since RB Edgerrin James has been the team’s MVP and the Bengals front seven is allowing 4.7 yards per carry (T-30th in NFL). The Bengals defense is good at playing with the lead, knowing that the opponent has the throw the ball to get back into the game but when they are kept off balance, they are very average. The only chance the Bengals have is to pressure Colts QB Peyton Manning and win the turnover battle but since Manning has only been sacked six times, that may hard to accomplish.
Colts -5.5
Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams
The Cards just don’t have many players left to compete in a track meet against the Rams. Back at home, the Rams should feel much more comfortable opposed to the outdoor elements that factored in last week’s loss. Look for the Rams to continue to feed RB Steven Jackson a steady dose of carries and just pound the Cards depleted defense.
Rams -9.5
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are coming off a big win on Monday night football and they have to make sure that they don’t lose focus against the Lions this week. With Lions DT Shaun Rogers not at full strength and the Lions missing most of their starting linebackers, expect Cowboys RBs Julius Jones and Marion Barber to have big games. If that’s the case, it will be tough to pressure QB Drew Bledsoe and more importantly, it will keep the Lions offensive opportunities to a minimum.
Cowboys -9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
There are not many Chris Simms believers out there but against the Falcons this week, the Bucs QB shouldn’t have to do it on his own. The Bucs will come out throwing early just to soften up a defense that will be expecting the run. Eventually the Bucs will get to it and should see some success against the 20th ranked unit. Tampa knows how to play Vick fairly well as they are 4-2 in the last six meetings and the two losses have only been by a combined 12 points.
Buccaneers +6
Injury Impact
-Arizona Cardinals defense without DE Bertrand Berry (torn pectoral, out) and Karlos Dansby (questionable) vs. St. Louis Rams offense
-Buffalo Bills run defense without DT Sam Adams (questionable) vs. San Diego Chargers rushing offense
-Jacksonville Jaguars run defense without DT Marcus Stroud (questionable) vs. Tennessee Titans rushing offense
-Lions passing game without QB Jeff Garcia (unlikely to play) vs. Dallas secondary
Two Games to Watch
Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears
-With QB Rex Grossman possibly only a couple of weeks away, could a win for the Bears put them among the class of the NFC?
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
-Brett Favre at Lambeau Field on a (hopefully) cold Monday Night. Now that’s nice.
Golokhov Power Ranking:
The rating for each team combines: strength of schedule, offensive and defensive productiveness, turnover ratio and special teams all relative to the rest of the league’s performance. Official statistics that are used to calculate the ratings are provided by NFL.com.
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