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Five Observations
1. Of all the first-year head coaches in the NFL this season, the Cleveland Brown’s Romeo Crennel is being talked about the least. He took over a program that was left in complete shambles and was even quite the laughing stock (remember Kellen Winslow Jr.) in the offseason but he has returned them to a respectable rank. Considering his defense has very little talent, prized free agent signing CB Gary Baxter is out with a season-ending injury and he inherited a questionable offensive line and Trent Dilfer, Crennel has turned out a pretty good product. The Browns have four wins already (only nine in the previous two years combined), they have the sixth ranked scoring defense (allowing 17 PPG) and most importantly, they compete every single week.
2. The San Diego Chargers may be one of the best teams in the AFC but they also may not make the playoffs. If the postseason started today, they would be on the outside looking in and the reason that may be the case at the end of the season is because of the Chargers upcoming schedule. Their remaining six games include road games at Washington, Indianapolis and Kansas City with home contests against Miami, Oakland and Denver. Even if the Chargers win out their home games, that only puts them at nine wins. The Chargers three road opponents are a combined 11-2 at home.
3. Let’s not get anything twisted here: the Minnesota Vikings are still a piece of garbage. They may have won four of their last five games, but look at who they have defeated. They crunched Green Bay twice, which obviously does not seem to be much of an accomplishment nowadays, they spanked the Joey Harrington version of the Detroit at home, nothing to write home about and they squeaked by the Giants. Alright, I’ll give them some credit for the last win but this team is still far from playoff-bound. Even though the remaining games on the sched look like a cakewalk, just remember, Mike Tice is still the head coach.
4. Oh sure, now everyone’s on the Chicago Bears bandwagon. You didn’t want to listen when I told you in the beginning of the season, now did ya? Well the new knock on the Bears is that they don’t score enough points to be a serious factor in the playoffs and while that may be in fact true, let me bring this to your attention:
Bears’ points per game: 16.9
Bears’ yards per game: 263.5
Bears’ points per game allowed: 11
Bears’ yards per game allowed: 252.1
It may not be pretty, but the Bears are still scoring more than they are allowing. Last time I checked, that’s the exact measure of determining the winner and loser in a football game.
5. Surprise, surprise, a Bill Parcells team leads the league in time of possession. The Cowboys entered the week averaging a league-best 33:16 of offensive possession and controlled the ball for 36:30 on Thanksgiving Thursday against the Denver Broncos. That’s definitely one way to keep their young and aggressive defense fresh and it’s also a great way to keep QB Drew Bledsoe upright – tell that to the 2004 Buffalo Bills. The Cowboys rank second in the league in rushing attempts per game but their yards per carry average is a meager 3.4. You can attest that to starting RB Julius Jones being a non-factor for most of the season because of injuries but with him back now, the Cowboys should be running the ball with a greater efficiency.
Four Picks
St. Louis Rams @ Houston Texans
Both teams will be looking to reassert themselves after putting out stinkers last week but it seems like the Rams have yet to hit rock bottom. Their coaching staff is bumping heads with each other and with the front office, their defensive tackles have been verbally dissed, starting QB Marc Bulger is out, SS Adam Archuleta is out, DE Leonard Little is clearly still affected by the loss of his brother and the Rams offensive line is not playing like a cohesive unit. The Texans main weakness is their offensive line but if the Rams give QB David Carr time to throw, he does have decent weapons to pick apart a battered defense. Look for RB Domanick Davis to have a big game.
Texans +3.5
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Arizona Cardinals
Going to the desert is never an easy task but the Jags need a win to keep a grasp on an AFC playoff Wild Card spot. Last week the Cardinals went into St. Louis and intimidated the Rams physically but nobody scares the Jags from a physical standpoint. Look for the Jags to wear down a thin Cards defense with RBs Fred Taylor and Greg Jones. The Cards running game should disappear again this week which will make QB Kurt Warner’s task that much stiffer.
Jaguars -3.5
Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Could I possibly stab my own Chicago Bears in the back? Absolutely not. Bucs QB Chris Simms has led his team to back-to-back but in both games the Bucs needed last second heroics to pull the game out and Simms has still not proven to me that he is a legitimate starting QB. The Bears physical running game has ran on everyone and I expect it to be functional once again this week. As for Cadillac Williams, his task will be much more arduous this week as the Bears run defense is no Falcons run defense. They are stout and will force the Bucs to pass the ball. The key for the Bears it to monitor WR Joey Galloway and make sure he does not get behind the secondary.
Bears +3
San Francisco 49ers @ Tennessee Titans
QB Ken Dorsey has played in two games for the 49ers this season, one of which they won (against Tampa Bay) and the other which they nearly won (against Seattle last week) but both of those games were at home. On the road, the 49ers have lost by an average of 24.75 points and the Titans will prove to be another stiff test. The young Titans defense, who has been abused virtually every week this season, should finally be able to shutdown/limit an opponent’s offense and the 49ers simply don’t have the talent in their wide receiving corps to exploit a young secondary.
Titans -9
Injury Impact
-Rams passing offense without QB Marc Bulger (out) vs Texans pass defense
-Rams secondary without CB Travis Fisher (doubtful), SS Adam Archuleta (out) and CB DeJuan Groce (questionable, will not start) vs Texans pass offense
-Banged up Ravens secondary, CB Chris McAllister (questionable, expected to play) and CB Samari Rolle (questionable, concussion, expected to play) vs Bengals wide receivers
-49ers run defense without DE Bryant Young (out) vs Titans rushing offense
-Redskins rushing defense without DT Cornelius Griffin (questionable) vs Chargers rushing offense
-Raiders run defense without DT Warren Sapp (doubtful) vs Dolphins rushing offense
-Eagles running offense/pass protection without C Hank Fraley (out), G Artis Hicks (doubtful), T Tra Thomas (doubtful) and G Shawn Andrews (questionable) vs Packers defense
Golokhov Power Rating
The rating for each team combines: strength of schedule, offensive and defensive productiveness, turnover ratio and special teams all relative to the rest of the league’s performance. Official statistics that are used to calculate the ratings are provided by NFL.com.
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