|
Five Observations
1. Although the Carolina Panthers are presumed to be one of the frontrunners for the NFC, they are a very unbalanced team offensively. Their rushing offense is ranked 26th and their passing offense is ranked 15th. Of the 2327 passing yards that the Panthers have accumulated, WR Steve Smith has accounted for 1161 (50%). Not only do they not have a proper run-pass balance offensively, they don’t even have another receiving option outside of Smith. He has 75 receptions on the year and the next closest player has only 25 receptions. The problem with this is that the good teams (playoffs teams) will be able to use a linebacker/safety bracket or just straight up double-team Smith to box him out of the game. Right now, the Panthers do not have any other weapons that will deter teams from doing so. Last week against Buffalo, Smith had only one catch in the first half (for nine yards) and the Panthers only had three points at halftime.
2. Ok, so he’s not Ben Roethlisberger but isn’t it time to start giving Chicago Bears QB Kyle Orton some serious credit? He stepped on a team that wasn’t even considered as a post-season competitor in the pre-season and has helped them to an 8-3 record. When Roethlisberger started quarterbacking a playoff team and ripped off seven straight wins as a rookie starter, pundits could not stop raving about the kid. Well Orton has done the same but unlike Roethlisberger, he wasn’t drafted 11th overall. He was drafted 106th overall. He may never be as good as Roethlisberger and his statistics may never measure up, but for now, he does deserve some recognition.
3. St. Louis Rams Head Coach Joe Vitt used to be a better motivator as an assistant coach but his recent casual approach is clearly visible in his team’s performance. With the Rams facing so much adversity (injuries, an uphill battle to the playoffs, in-house bouts) he has given his team the message that if certain players don’t want to play, the next player in line will step into the lineup. This type of lackadaisical approach is not ideal as the head coach should demand the absolute most out of his players, not give them the option to try or not. This lack of enthusiasm was visible last week when the Rams found themselves down 24-3 at halftime and needed a rookie QB to create a spark. Each team’s demeanor seeps down from the coach since he is the main leader and if he is not full of vigor, then his players won’t be either.
4. One reason why the Colts are so high on the Golokhov Power Ranking is their points scored versus points allowed differential. They are scoring 30.1 PPG and allowing 14.5 PPG for a sparkling 15.6 differential. Consider that most good teams have a differential of about 5-10 points and that the San Diego Chargers, the next closest team, are 6.1 points behind at 9.5. The Colts may not have the best defense in the NFL but they are playing with a ton of confidence right now and with a potent offense to back them up, expect this ratio to stay in the double-digits.
5. Pop quiz: which defense leads the NFL in sacks? If you’d guessed the Chicago Bears, you would be wrong. It’s the Seattle Seahawks. They have done it the same way as the Bears, though, with a stout front-four leading the way. The Seahawks defensive line has accounted for 24.5 of the team’s 36 sacks. Getting to the quarterback has been critical for the Seahawks, who entered the season with seven new defensive starters. Without the need of supplemental blitzing, the Seahawks defense can safely drop seven players into coverage and really cloud the passing lanes when necessary. In the past couple of seasons, the strength of the Seahawks defensive line has been the edge rushers but now they have a very strong rotation at the tackle position as well. DT Rocky Bernard is getting most of the recognition since he has 8.5 sacks (which is excellent for a tackle), but second-year tackle Marcus Tubbs has developed in a premier run-stuffer and the undersized Chatric Darby has also been a handful for opposing offensive lines.
Four Picks
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
The Lions have gone through some turmoil this past week but they have almost 10 days to prepare for the Vikings. The Lions struggle offensively when they can not get the ground game going but with QB Jeff Garcia at the helm, they should be able to get on track. With Joey Harrington at QB, opposing defenses do not respect the Lions ability to pass and therefore stack the box to limit RB Kevin Jones. With the Vikings best defensive linemen, Kevin Williams, out for the game, the Lions will be able to run the ball. On the flipside, look for the Lions to limit the Vikings rushing yards by using big packages and playing their defense up near the line of scrimmage. If the Vikings can not run, they can not score. The Lions will be ready this week after an embarrassing thanksgiving.
Lions +3
Washington Redskins @ St. Louis Rams
Rams will likely start QB Ryan Fitzpatrick as Jamie Martin continues to suffer from blurred vision. Against the Houston Texans porous defense, Fitzpatrick led an amazing comeback but against the Redskins stout unit, don’t expect him to have as much success. The key here is that the Rams are beat up on their offensive line. If they can not protect a rookie quarterback, they will be in trouble. On the flipside, the Rams defense has been pantsed by virtually every opponent and expect their defensive line to get mauled this week by a big, physical Redskins line. Redskins RB Clinton Portis should have a solid game as the Rams are weak at the DT position and the Redskins blockers should be able to get to the second level quickly and clear up some space for him.
Redskins -2.5
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Do not expect the Steelers to get embarrassed two games in a row. After laying down on it’s back like a helpless Chihuahua on Monday Night, look for the Steelers to come out extremely physical against a soft team who can not stop the run. Last week the Bengals allowed a struggling Jamal Lewis to break the 100-yard rushing mark for the first time this season. They don’t have the sufficient talent at the defensive tackle position, rookie LB Odell Thurman is still shaky on his gap control and the loss of S Madieu Williams for the season, a physical run-stuffer, have been their season-long ailments. And now you have Chad Johnson adding that extra motivation…
Steelers -3
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
The big matchup this week will be Falcons CB DeAngelo Hall versus Panthers WR Steve Smith. Expect the Faclons to give Hall lots of support to try to faze Smith out of the game. The key for the Falcons offensively will be trying to run the ball against the third-stingiest run defense in the NFL. They may catch a break as MLB Dan Morgan is hobbled with an ankle injury. The Falcons seem to own the Panthers and in the last three meetings Vick himself has 244 rushing yards. Between RB Warrick Dunn and QB Michael Vick, the Falcons seem to be able to exploit the Panthers over-aggressiveness, particularly DE’s Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker.
Falcons +3
Injury Impact
-Rams offensive line without T Alex Barron (out) and T Blaine Saipaia (questionable, not expected to play) vs Redskins front seven
-Seahawks pass-rush without DE Bryce Fisher (very questionable) vs Eagles offensive line
-Chiefs offensive line without C Casey Wiegmann (questionable) vs Broncos front seven
-Bills secondary without CB Terrence McGee (questionable) and SS Lawyer Milloy (questionable) vs Dolphins passing offense
-Dolphins linebackers without Junior Seau (IR) and Zach Thomas (doubtful) vs Bills rushing offense
-Vikings run defense without DT Kevin Williams (out) vs Lions rushing offense
-49ers rushing offense without C Jeremy Newberry (IR), FB Fred Beasley (doubtful, not expected to play) and RB Frank Gore (doubtful, not expected to play) vs Cardinals rushing defense
-Cardinals rushing offense without G Jeremy Bridges (questionable, not expected to play) G Elton Brown (out), C/G Alex Stepanovich (out) and RB Marcel Shipp (doubtful, not expected to play vs 49ers rushing defense
-Steelers rushing offense without T Marvel Smith (out) vs Bengals rushing defense
Golokhov Power Rating
The rating for each team combines: strength of schedule, offensive and defensive productiveness, turnover ratio and special teams all relative to the rest of the league’s performance. Official statistics that are used to calculate the ratings are provided by NFL.com.
|
|
|
No comments yet - join this discussion...
|
|
|
|
|
|
