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Five Observations
1. On paper, the whole idea of strength of schedule (giving teams who finish with better records tougher schedules) sounds sensible, but it hasn’t really panned out that way this season. The 2-10 San Francisco 49ers have had the second-toughest home schedule as their home opponents have had a 0.642 winning percentage while the only team to have a more difficult schedule at home is the Miami Dolphins, whose home opponents have a combined record of 40-20. On the road, no team has had it harder than the Houston Texans, whose opponents have a combined 0.613 winning percentage. So how do the league-leading Indianapolis Colts compare? They have had a fairly light schedule this season, possibly the easiest in the NFL, as their road opponents have a feeble record of 24-46 (second-easiest in NFL) while their home opponents have not been much stronger with a combined record of 29-43 (third-easiest in the NFL).
2. Contract years are the time when an athlete will exert himself to the fullest and usually overachieve in order to collect a big pay check on the free agent market but that is not always the case. For some players, if the situation has gone sour in their current environment, they will head in the other direction and underachieve purposely, in order to avoid any serious injuries. Case and point: Baltimore Ravens’ running back Jamal Lewis and Jets’ defensive end John Abraham. While the blame is not squarely on the shoulders of Lewis, when you consider that Chester Taylor has been more effective at times, you know that Lewis is not giving his all. As for Abraham, who started the season with 13 tackles, three sacks and a pass defensed in the first three weeks of the season, has only had two sacks, nine tackles and zero passes defensed in the last five weeks. Nonetheless, if these players are to become free agents, suitors will not view them with any trepidation as everyone is aware what these guys are capable of.
3. At this point last year, the San Diego Chargers were 9-3 and in the midst of an eight-game winning streak until the Indianapolis Colts quenched that fire. Well, even though the Colts might have the opportunity to put an end to another Chargers win streak when the two teams meet in Indianapolis next week, the Chargers appear to be the Colts main competition in the AFC. Indy has had no problems with the Denver Broncos in the past and will dismantle them again this year if the Broncos have to travel to the RCA Dome but San Diego might cause a few difficulties. For starters, the Chargers do employ a 3-4 defense which has given Peyton Manning more trouble than 4-3 defenses have in the past. The Chargers would probably study the defenses of the Patriots and do a lot of pre-snap shifting and fake blitzes. The Chargers front seven is also second in the AFC in sack total with 38, which is a sharp improvement over last year’s team which only account for 29 in 16 games, and entails the NFL’s top rushing defense.
4. Just when you thought it was safe to get on the “Michael Vick can pass” bandwagon, you’re a little red-faced for doing that, aren’t you? There was a brief flash of light during a three week span where Vick compiled 743 yards passing with five touchdowns and no interceptions while completing nearly 64% of his passes. Well after the last two weeks he has come back down to earth going 29-57 with two touchdowns and three interceptions. Here’s the main problem: Vick still does not have a go-to receiver. Brian Finneran is tops among the Falcons wide receivers with 451 passing yards but 108 of them came in a game that Matt Schaub started. It’s hard to tell if Vick is where McNabb was pre-Owens or whether Vick will always be this type of an inefficient passer but until he gets a reliable wideout we’ll assume the best. Here’s still an MVP-type player, just for different reasons.
5. Clinton Portis does not exactly fit what Washington Redskins head coach Joe Gibbs is looking for. Gibbs has tried to mold a finesse back into a power back but the result has put Portis in a no-mans land. Portis is not a bruiser and he’s not being used as an open-field homerun threat which begs the question: is Washington better off trading him? Portis is the best player on the offense but he is being asked to play a role which does not suit him. We’re talking about a player who was among the ranks of Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson a couple of years ago with a monstrous 5.5 yards-per-carry average. In the first two seasons of his career, he compiled 24 rushes of 20 yards or longer. During his two years in Washington, he only has nine. His star has definitely faded in Washington but it is not because he has diminished as a player but because he is being misused.
Four Picks
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
JP Losman is 1-6 as the Bills starter and although he started hot last week in Miami, he still only finished completing 50% of his passes. The Bills may be in some trouble this week as WR Eric Moulds is suspended which leaves them without a good possession wideout. The Patriots will likely stack the box and force the Bills into longer third-down situations where they will feel the loss of Moulds. The Patriots are getting healthier on defense and should be able to contain the Bills.
Patriots -3.5
Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers
The Dolphins are in tough this week as they will be facing the number one rushing defense in the NFL. If Miami’s running game is cut-off, they generally need a miracle to win and after last week’s miracle, expect the Chargers to watch the tapes and prevent the Dolphins from catching lightning in a bottle twice. Meanwhile, the Chargers are on fire of late and unless the Dolphins figure out a way to pressure the quarterback, Drew Brees and co. shouldn’t have many problems scoring. Even if RB LaDainian Tomlinson can not go, Michael Turner and even Darren Sproles can step in and provide decent production.
Chargers -13.5
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles just don’t have much left in the tank. Defensively, they are still more or less intact but with a bare-naked offense, their defense will spend too much time on the field. With tight-end Jeremy Shockey and WR Plaxico Burress and RB Tiki Barber, the Giants will create enough mismatches to dominate the time of possession. The Eagles have lost WR Terrell Owens, QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook and most of their offensive line for the year. Although the Giants defense is not one of the better units, it should not have too much trouble against the Eagles second team.
Giants -9
St. Louis Rams @ Minnesota Vikings
This is a tail of two teams headed in opposite directions. The Vikings are smoking hot right now, are running the ball effectively and are not making many mistakes. The Rams have chemistry issues in the locker room and are not doing anything right as a team. Rookie QB Ryan Fitzpatrick looked good for about one half of a game and now the Rams look completely lost and unmotivated.
Vikings -6.5
Injury Impact
-Bills rushing offense without guards Chris Villarrial (questionable) and Mike Williams (questionable) vs Patriots rushing defense
-Ravens rushing offense without tackle Orlando Brown (doubtful, not expected to play), G Keydrick Vincent (out) and guard Edwin Mulitalo (questionable, game-time decision) vs Broncos rushing defense
-Browns offense without WR Bralyon Edwards (out), Reuben Droughns (questionable, expected to play), G Cosey Coleman (questionable, expected to play) and G Joe Andruzzi (questionable) vs Bengals defense
-Raiders rushing defense without DT Ted Washington (questionable) and DT Ed Jasper (questionable, expected to play) vs Jets rushing offense.
-Steelers offense line without T Marvel Smith (out) and T Max Starks (questionable, expected to play) vs Bears defensive line
-Panthers defensive line without DE Julius Peppers (questionable) and DE Mike Rucker (questionable) vs Buccaneers offensive line
Golokhov Power Rating
The rating for each team combines: strength of schedule, offensive and defensive productiveness, turnover ratio and special teams all relative to the rest of the league’s performance. Official statistics that are used to calculate the ratings are provided by NFL.com.
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