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Five Observations
1. At 6-2, 212 lbs, Detroit Lions wide receiver Roy Williams has the tools to be a physical monster on the field but instead, in just under two seasons in the NFL, Williams has developed quite the track record of being a softy. Numerous members around the Lions organization have questioned his ability to play through pain, particularly earlier in the season when Williams missed three games because of a strained left thigh. Although Williams makes a breathtaking catch every now and then but he shies away from contact too frequently, making it more difficult for him to separate from cornerbacks on short and intermediate routes. For a player with his physical tools, he should be a top-10 wide receiver in the NFL but it is not the first time we have seen a player drafted out of Texas who is lacking mental toughness. A coaching change will definitely help him.
2. For three weeks in a row now, Cincinnati Bengals’ offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski has made some questionable late-game calls.
-In Week 12 versus Baltimore, with a 20 point lead heading into the fourth quarter, the first four offensive plays were run, pass, pass, pass (one pass was intercepted).
-In Week 13 at Pittsburgh, with a seven-point and 2:52 remaining, the Bengals start their drive with pass, run, pass (first pass bounced off of Steelers safety Troy Polamalu’s hands).
-In Week 14, with the game tied in the fourth quarter and their defense tiring after a long Browns drive, the Bengals receive the ball on their own 19-yard line and pass the ball three consecutive times without getting a first down.
Hey Bob, don’t hesitate to run the ball once in a while. The Bengals’ Rudi Johnson may not garner a ton of attention (or glory for that matter) but he is the NFL’s seventh leading rusher. In the past three games, he has yet to average less than 4.2 yards per carry and with one of the league’s better offensive lines, the Bengals could shorten their games by running a few extra times.
3. The Minnesota Vikings have righted the ship with a six game winning streak after a dismal start and you can credit their turnover ratio as one of the biggest factor in their transformation. After the first two weeks of the season, the Vikings had turned the ball over 12 times and their turnover ratio was -8 after week six. During their last eight games, they are +14. Only two teams have a better ratio than the Vikings +14 (CIN & DEN) but those teams have needed the whole season to get there. The Vikings are not a dominant football team but they are playing smart. They don’t put their defense in short fields, they don’t give up free points anymore and they force their opponent to beat them. Sounds pretty simple, huh? Tell that to New Orleans, St. Louis, Houston, San Francisco…
4. The San Diego Chargers rushing defense is ranked first overall and their pass defense is ranked 27th. While one might come to the conclusion that the rush defense is so high up on the food chain only because teams recognize where the real weakness is on the Chargers’ defense, the truth is that the run defense is in fact that good. On the other hand, the passing defense is in fact that bad. The Chargers secondary has given up 38 passing plays of 20 yards or longer (26th in NFL) and has allowed 160 first downs by way of pass (30th in NFL). Last year, one could have argued that the Chargers front seven was not pressuring the quarterback enough when the team finished with the NFL third-lowest total of 29 but this year, the Chargers have accumulated 38 already, good for 4th in the NFL. With only eight interceptions on the year (28th in NFL), and only five of them made by defensive backs, it’s obvious the Chargers secondary needs a lot of help in the offseason.
5. The Green Bay Packers may have hit an all-time low during the Brett Favre era but the recent play of the defense has been somewhat of a sweet in the midst of the sour. The defense’s overall ranking is fifth, which is quite impressive considering there are so many areas where the team can improve. Defensive coordinator Jim Bates has always preached the importance of getting off the field on third downs which has helped an inexperienced squad stay fresh late in games. The Packers entail the league’s top-ranked pass defense which is quite the accomplishment considering three of the four starters in the secondary would probably not play major roles on a half-decent team. But keep in mind that the defensive statistics are somewhat better than normal since the Packers offense is laboring and opponents don’t need to score as many points as in previous years to defeat Green Bay. Nonetheless, it could be worse so give Jim Bates some credit. And if the Packers don’t, one of the teams in search of a new head coach just might.
Four Picks
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have feasted on a facile schedule during their current hot streak as their past six opponents have a combined record of 29-49. Now the challenge stiffens against a desperate Steelers team who will try to pound them with their ground game. The only team that the Vikings defeated who is above .500 during their streak was the NY Giants and in that game, the Vikes needed three non-offensive touchdowns to win. As long as the Steelers don’t beat themselves, the Vikings won’t do it.
Steelers -3
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills
With not much else to get excited about, the Bills upcoming nationally televised home game on Saturday night is basically their Super Bowl. The Bills are not as bad as they displayed last week and with Kelly Holcomb under center, they should be able to limit the turnovers and play a lot smarter. The Broncos are definitely the stronger team but they are a much different squad away from home. Look for the Bills to feed off their crowd and sellout to stop the run and force Jake Plummer to beat them through the air. Prior to last week, the Bills had not lost by more than nine points at home all season.
Bills +9
Seattle Seahawks @ Tennessee Titans
The Seahawks have crushed their past two opponents by a score of 83-3 but the Titans will provide a few mismatches, at least for their defense. The Seahawks do lead the league in sacks but the Titans do an excellent job of protecting their quarterback. If Steve McNair has adequate time to throw, expect Titans offensive coordinator Norm Chow to test the Seahawks secondary down the field since CB’s Andre Dyson and Kelly Herndon are expected to be out. The Titans are much more capable offensively than the Seahawks last two opponents which should keep this game closer than most expect.
Titans +7
San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts
For the Chargers, the playoffs start on Sunday. For the Colts, it’s basically the pre-season. Although the Colts will likely play their starters for a half, it’s hard to envision Tony Dungy going for the win when there is virtually nothing to play for. The Chargers have an aggressive defense and should Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James or any of the other Colts offensive stars get injured, Dungy’s logic will come into serious question.
Chargers +9
Injury Impact
-Steelers rushing offense without T Marvel Smith (out) vs Vikings rushing defense
-Jets rushing defense without DE Shaun Ellis (questionable) and DT Dewayne Robertson (questionable) vs Dolphins rushing offense
-Texans rushing offense without RB Domanick Davis (game-time decision) vs Cardinals rushing defense
-Colts rushing defense without DT Corey Simon (out) and LB Cato June (questionable) vs Chargers rushing offense
-Giants offensive line without T Kareem McKenzie (questionable) and T Luke Petitgout (questionable) vs Chiefs front seven
-Giants rushing defense without DT William Joseph (out) and LB Antonio Pierce (out) vs Chiefs RB Larry Johnson
-Bears defense without LB Hunter Hillenmeyer (questionable), S Mike Brown (doubtful, not expected to play) and S Chris Harris (doubtful, not expected to play) vs Falcons offense
-Lions rushing defense without LB Boss Bailey (out) and LB Earl Holmes (doubtful) vs Bengals’ Rudi Johnson
-Cardinals defense without LB Karlos Dansby (doubtful) and DT Darnell Dockett (questionable) vs Texans offense
-Seahawks secondary without CB Andre Dyson (out) and CB Kelly Herndon (out) vs Titans passing offense
Golokhov Power Rating
The rating for each team combines: strength of schedule, offensive and defensive productiveness, turnover ratio and special teams all relative to the rest of the league’s performance. Official statistics that are used to calculate the ratings are provided by NFL.com.
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