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Five Observations
1. It took a while, but the Dallas Cowboys key injuries have finally caught up to them. Last week against the Washington Redskins, it was painfully evident how much they missed their stalwart left tackle Flozell Adams, who is lost for the season with a knee injury. The Redskins attacked and abused backup left tackle Torrin Tucker all day long (accumulating seven sacks in total). A quarterback like Drew Bledsoe requires as much time as possible to throw and with a patched up line, the Cowboys have not been able to protect him. On defense, the loss of veteran linebacker Dat Nguyen is also nagging what was already a thin group of linebackers. In the four games that he has missed, the Cowboys have allowed just under 151 yards rushing per game and, not surprisingly, they’ve lost three of their last four.
2. Special teams play are a deciding factor in NFL games every week but as far as coverage units go, something is often overlooked: depth. If a player off of the first-team offense or first-team defense is injured and a backup player has to fill-in, he usually comes off of the special teams unit. For example, Buffalo Bills LB Angelo Crowell, who is filling in for the injured Takeo Spikes, was one of the Bills best special teams players. It’s obvious that the Bills take a hit on their defense unit because Crowell’s skills are not on the same level as Spikes’ but the ripple effect can be noticed on the special teams unit as well, who also has to fill a void with a weaker player. When the New England Patriots were battered and bruised earlier in the year, their special teams really suffered which led to head coach Bill Belichick putting his regulars on special teams. Just keep in mind that depth doesn’t only affect the primetime role-players but it also sends a reaction down the chain to special teams.
3. More than any recent year that I can remember, the NFL Pro Bowl selections seemed to be based more on reputation than actual performance. Cincinnati Bengals tackle Levi Jones has emerged as one of the best tackles in the league, if not the best this season and while Jonathan Ogden had an awful season and Willie Roaf, as valuable as he is, was hurt for several weeks, they still made the cut ahead of the Bengals’ tackle. Jones is the best offensive lineman on the Bengals, yet teammate Willie Anderson also made the team. The next AFC snub on my list is Cleveland Browns linebacker Andra Davis, who leads the NFL in tackles. He has better all-around numbers than Broncos ILB Al Wilson and Dolphins ILB Zach Thomas but he was not laid (you know, the flower ring you put around your neck in Hawaii…)
In the NFC, safety Dwight Smith has been the Saints defensive MVP. He switched from free safety to strong safety after the SS Jay Bellamy was lost for the season and he has been a playmaker in their secondary. Although his work doesn’t always come up on the stat sheet, the stats are there for Cardinals strong safety Adrian Wilson, who was also snubbed. He has been a true Pro Bowler this year while Cowboys safety Roy Williams, who was selected to the team, has not done anything out of the ordinary this season.
4. What does the Cincinnati Bengals defense and the Chicago Bears defense have in common? They are both reaping the benefits of having a defensive-minded coach who focuses on takeaways. In 2002, the year before Lewis took over in Cincinnati, the Bengals finished with 20 takeaways, good for 31st in the NFL. Under the tutelage of Lewis though, they have improved each year. They totaled 24 takeaways (23rd in NFL) in 2003, then climbed to 36 takeaways (5th in NFL) in 2004 and now they are tops in the league with 42. Chicago was bumming around the bottom of the barrel in 2003 prior to Smith, with only 20 takeaways (tied for 31st in NFL). Since then increased their total to 29 (16th in the NFL) in 2004 and have accumulated 30 this year (6th in NFL). Now that’s results!
5. Although veteran quarterbacks Steve McNair and Brett Favre have shown their age somewhat this season, the truth of the matter is that they can still be a very valuable blue chip to a team that has many pieces of the puzzle but is lacking a quarterback. Favre has been overwhelmed in Green Bay and he has been pressing too much with little help around him but in a situation like New Orleans or Baltimore, Favre could turn one of those teams into an instant contender. McNair is no longer a league MVP but he, too, could prove to be a valuable asset for a team that is missing only a quarterback. The Miami Dolphins are another team who is on the cusp of emerging as a possible contender and with the services of a guy like McNair, they could be a serious threat to New England in the AFC East. In fact, there is a buzz going around right now about McNair heading to Miami in the offseason. As for Favre, it’s hard to envision him playing for a different team outside of Green Bay but, regardless, he still has the skills to lead a good team deep into the playoffs.
Four Picks
Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers
The Cowboys are tearing apart at the seams at the wrong time. The offensive line really let down Drew Bledsoe last week and considering they are facing another pressure-based defense, the Cowboys offense could be in for another long day. The Panthers will attack LT Torrin Tucker all day long and if the Cowboys decide to use tight-ends or running backs to max protect, it will further limit their options down the field. The Panthers are healthy and peaking at the right time.
Panthers -4
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
The hunch seems to be that the Chargers are the better team here, and on paper, they might be, but the Chiefs are very tough to beat at home in December. They have lost only once at home this year while the Chargers are night and day when comparing their home and away stats. At home, QB Drew Brees has 16 TD, 7 INT with a QB rating of 100.9. On the road he has 7 TD, 9 INT and a rating of 80.8. The Chargers are beat up in the secondary so look for the Chiefs to come out passing and attack the Chargers down the field. Once the Chargers are softened up, they’ll hit ‘em with some LJ.
Chiefs +1
San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams
The 49ers may be a 2-12 team but at least they are trying. The Rams, on the other hand, have chemistry issues all over the place and it is unclear what kind of heat they will bring from week to week. Both teams have been stung badly by injuries and both teams have horrific defenses but the Rams are a ten-point favorite? They do have the better talent but they definitely don’t put it to good use.
49ers +10
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
When the Redskins can run the football, they are an arduous opponent to face, particularly at FedEx Field. They should be able to run the ball with success this week because the Giants are missing several components of their rushing defense (DT William Joseph and LB Antonio Pierce out). Two other factors are in the Redskins factor: home-field advantage and they are more desperate. The Giants are a mediocre 3-3 on the road while the Redskins are 5-2 in their own confines when backed by their vociferous crowd. If the Redskins can run the ball, it will create more one-on-one opportunities for their receivers as the Giants will have to cheat up to the line of scrimmage. With the use of bruising H-backs and a slippery Santana Moss, the Giants will pay dearly if they fail to wrap up.
Redskins -2.5
Injury Impact
-Jets pass defense without DE Shaun Ellis (questionable) and DT Dewayne Robertson vs Patriots pass offense
-Bengals rush defense without DT Bryan Robinson (out) and LB Odell Thurman (questionable) vs Bills rush offense
-Browns offensive line without C Jeff Faine (out) vs Steelers front seven
-Texans rushing offense without RB Domanick Davis (questionable, game-time decision) vs Jaguars rush defense
-Colts rushing defense without DT’s Corey Simon and Montae Reagor (both questionable, not expected to play) and LB Cato June (out) vs Seahawks rushing offense
-Raiders rushing offense without RB LaMont Jordan (doubtful, will not play) and OL Jake Grove (doubtful, will not play) vs Broncos rushing defense
-Chargers secondary without SS Terrence Kiel (out) and FS Bhawoh Jue (questionable) vs Chiefs passing offense
-Giants rush defense without LB’s Antonio Pierce (out), Carlos Emmons (doubtful) Reggie Torbor (questionable) and DT William Joseph (out) vs Redskins rushing offense
-Bears secondary without S’s Mike Brown (questionable), Chris Harris (questionable, expected to start) and Todd Johnson (questionable) vs Packers pass offense
-Packers offense without RB Samkon Gado (out) and WR Robert Ferguson (questionable) vs Bears defense
-Saints offensive line without C LeCharles Bentley (questionable), G Kendyl Jacox (questionable, likely to play), G Jermane Mayberry (questionable) and T Wayne Gandy (questionable, expected to play) vs Lions defense
-Seahawks pass defense without CB Andre Dyson (out) and Kelly Herndon (out) vs Colts passing offense
-Rams rushing offense without LB Dexter Coakley (out) and LB Chris Claiborne (out)
Golokhov Power Rating
The rating for each team combines: strength of schedule, offensive and defensive productiveness, turnover ratio and special teams all relative to the rest of the league’s performance. Official statistics that are used to calculate the ratings are provided by NFL.com.
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