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Five Observations
1. Taking a look ahead to the offseason, there will be anywhere from 5-10 teams searching for a new head coach but there will be a lack of qualified candidates. You can count in Detroit, St. Louis and Oakland as head coach hunters while Minnesota, Houston and New Orleans could be added to that list. Dallas and Kansas City are always on the bubble as well as Bill Parcells and Dick Vermeil once again contemplate retirement. But there will be a severe shortage of fill-ins, which may force some teams to stick with who they have. The college coaches who could have jumped to the pro level were USC’s Pete Carroll and Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz but Carroll just signed an extension at USC and Ferentz seems content at Iowa. Among the coordinators in the NFL, there will always be talk of Tampa Bay’s defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin or Philadelphia’s defensive coordinator Jim Johnson, but both could have left for head positions a while ago. Why now? Expect a few fired coaches like Steve Marriucci to land somewhere and expect to be introduced to a few unfamiliar faces.
2. Although USC’s Reggie Bush seems to be the hot draft commodity right now, expect his teammate Matt Leinart to be heavily sought after come draft day. The teams near the bottom of the barrel, NY Jets, Oakland, Tennessee, New Orleans, Detroit and Baltimore will all explore the possibility of trading up to acquire Leinart, especially since there are so few other quarterback prospects out there. Leinart’s competition seems to be Vanderbilt’s Jay Cutler, who is quickly rising up draft charts, and a couple of juniors (Texas’ Vince Young and Notre Dame’s Brady Quinn) who have not declared for the draft as of yet. Quinn is likely to return for his senior season while Young’s decision will probably be based on whether or not Texas wins the National Championship. Aside from Leinart and Cutler, teams desperate for a young QB will have to wait until the later rounds to pick up someone like Alabama’s Brodie Croyle.
3. Don’t look now, but Baltimore Ravens QB Kyle Boller is coming around. Wait a second…no he’s not. If you are one of the naïve people who is being fooled by Boller’s statistics the past two games (43-61, 70.5%, 542 YDS, 6 TD, 1 INT) let me just remind of you two things: (a) the games were at home and (b) look at the opponents he played against. Boller faced the Vikings’ and Packers’ defenses, both of whom do not generate very much pressure on the quarterback. That is Boller’s exact weakness as he typically crumbles in the face of pressure which usually leads to mistakes. In three road games this year, Boller has completed 57.7% of his passes with four touchdowns and seven interceptions. Boller will be attempting to compile three consecutive games with a QB rating of 100 or more as the Ravens head to Cleveland this weekend. In his career (33 starts), Boller has only seven games with a QB rating of 100+. That tells you all you need to know.
4. Nick Saban won’t be crowned as the NFL’s Head Coach of the Year – this year anyways – but he definitely deserves a lot of credit for turning around what was a disastrous product in Miami. He found a way to convince Ricky Williams to not only return to the NFL, but to produce on at a high level to the point that he has now regained some trade value. Saban also did an excellent job of putting together the right staff, more specifically bringing in a credible offensive line coach like Hudson Houck who has helped patch up what was one of the units in the league last year. Many people were unsure if the Dolphins defense could switch to a 3-4 scheme or if they had the right personnel to do so but their performance has been satisfactory. They lead the league in sacks and are seventh in takeaways. If Saban finds a viable option at quarterback, the Dolphins will be playoff ready.
5. The Carolina Panthers running game is in desperate need help. Consider that when they went to the Super Bowl back in 2003, their running backs averaged 4.0 yards per carry and their attempts per game were at 32.6 per game (3rd in NFL). This year their attempts have declined to 29.9 per game (11th in NFL) and their yards per carry is an awful 3.2 average. Put it this way, the only team in the NFL that has an average worse than 3.2 is Arizona (3.1) and everyone knows that Arizona could not run the ball if the fate of the world depended on it. The Panthers offense is already short on weapons as Steve Smith seems to be the only real game-breaker so if the running game dies on the Panthers, don’t expect them to journey deep into the playoffs – if they make it there.
Four Picks
New York Giants @ Oakland Raiders
The Raiders seem completely hapless with absolutely nothing to play for this weekend while the Giants find themselves on the other side of the motivational spectrum since a win clinches the NFC East and a playoff berth. But Kerry Collins is facing his former team and their defense is completely depleted. The Giants don’t have the cornerbacks to match up with Randy Moss, Doug Gabriel and Jerry Porter and furthermore, the Giants are not very successful on the road.
Raiders +9
Arizona Cardinals @ Indianapolis Colts
With the Colts losing their two previous games, all of the sudden their final game of the regular season has some meaning if they plan on regaining any momentum. The Arizona Cardinals are a threat (somewhat) offensively when Kurt Warner is playing quarterback but with Josh McCown at the helm, the Colts should have less to worry about. Also, the Colts seem to have found a viable backup with Jim Sorgi, who moved the ball up and down the field efficiently last week in Seattle. With Tony Dungy back in the fold, the Colts should be able to finish 14-2.
Colts -6.5
Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs
It has been a few weeks in a row that the Bengals have been gashed by opposing running backs. They are allowing 110 rushing yards per game which is an ominous sign as they head into Arrowhead Stadium for their regular season finale. The Chiefs are hard to beat at home in December and if you don’t or can’t contain Larry Johnson, good luck to you.
Chiefs -7.5
Houston Texans @ San Francisco 49ers
Surprisingly enough, the Texans have proved that they have adequate weapons in the passing game the past two weeks. In that time, WR Andre Johnson has resurfaced and accounted for 170 yards and one touchdown, 25% of his total receiving yards and half of his touchdown total for the season. That being said, the Texans will be able to exploit a bare 49ers secondary and will do everything they can to stop the run.
Houston -2
Injury Impact
-Buccaneers offense without WR Michael Clayton (out), TE Anthony Becht (questionable) and RT Kenyatta Walker (questionable) vs Saints defense
-Saints offensive line without C LeCharles Bentley (questionable, not expected to play) and RT Jammal Brown (questionable) vs Bucs front seven.
-Broncos rush defense without DE Courtney Brown (out) and MLB Al Wilson (out) vs Chargers rushing offense.
-Lions rushing offense without G Damien Woody (questionable), RB Kevin Jones (questionable, he expects to play) and RB Artose Pinner (questionable) vs Steelers rushing defense
-Jaguars rushing offense without RB Greg Jones (questionable), G Chris Naeole (questionable) and G Vincent Manuqai (probable) vs Titans rushing defense
-Titans offense without QB Steve McNair (questionable), RB Chris Brown (questionable), WR Drew Bennett (questionable), WR Tyrone Calico (questionable, not expected to play), TE Ben Troupe (questionable) vs Jaguars defense
-Giants defense without LB’s Chase Blackburn (out), Antonio Pierce (out), Carlos Emmons (out), Reggie Torbor (questionable, not expected to play) and DT William Joseph (questionable) vs Raiders offense.
-Packers offense without WR Robert Ferguson (questionable, unlikely to play) and C Mike Flanagan (questionable, unlikely to play) vs Seahawks defense.
-Seahawks pass defense without CB Marcus Trufant (doubtful) and CB Andre Dyson (out)
Golokhov Power Rating
The rating for each team combines: strength of schedule, offensive and defensive productiveness, turnover ratio and special teams all relative to the rest of the league’s performance. Official statistics that are used to calculate the ratings are provided by NFL.com.
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