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Five Observations:
1. The Pittsburgh Steelers are overrated. They easily find themselves out of their element if they cannot run the ball and are forced to throw. Ben Roethlisberger seems to be comfortable when the opposing defense is off-balance and he only needs to pass occasionally but when it becomes a necessity he is not nearly as confident. It wouldn’t hurt to pass the ball more often – even if the Steelers are playing with a lead – so that Roethlisberger can get acclimated to those types of scenarios where he needs to win the game for the Steelers.
2. Kerry Collins, Kurt Warner and Drew Bledsoe are all still premiere quarterbacks in the NFL, they just need to play behind a sturdy offensive line to succeed. Sure they are not mobile but their skill set revolves around accuracy from the pocket. Although offensive struggles are always pinned on Collins and Warner, blame the line in front of them, not the quarterback. Take Bledsoe for example. Last year in Buffalo he averaged 183.3 passing yards per game, completed 56.9% of his passes and was sacked 2.4 times per game. This year, with upgraded protection, he is averaging 283.3 passing yards per game and completing 64.3% of his passes. It’s all in the protection.
3. Speaking of which, the Kansas City Chiefs offensive line has not performed the same with Pro Bowl tackle William Roaf on the sidelines for the past two games with a hamstring injury. In week one (with him) they bulldozed the Jets defense for 198 rushing yards. In weeks two and three combined (without him) they only totaled 199 rushing yards. He’s critical to their ground game because the Chiefs love to run to the left side and his replacement Jordan Black just simply is not a standout. Roaf is not expected to play this week.
4. Sticking with the offensive line theme, one way to make a sub par unit play par for the course is with a young spark. Last year the Buffalo Bills offensive lines wasn’t doing any favors for Travis Henry but looked fantastic when Willis McGahee took over. A similar trend can be seen in Tampa Bay as Cadillac Williams has sparked a group that was supposed to hinder the Buccaneers from any success. The Bucs have three first-time starters (two rookies) but are creating quality lanes for Williams and are giving Griese ample time to throw. Now if they could only limit the holding penalties…
5. In hindsight, I think the Seattle Seahawks and Indianapolis Colts are happy that they held on to their franchise running backs. It’s hard to fathom that Shaun Alexander and Edgerrin James were both on the trade markets in the offseason but where would the Colts and Seahawks be without their centerpieces? I can assure that the Colts offensive struggles would be taken much more seriously if James was playing elsewhere. Meanwhile Alexander is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and is second in the league in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns; is there any reason that Seattle has not locked this guy up long term yet?
Four Picks:
Buffalo Bills @ New Orleans Saints
The Bills run defense has been porous this season, mostly in part to Ron Edwards inability to replace the caliber of Pat Williams on the defensive line. The Bills first-rate linebackers have had to deal with much more traffic and blockers than they are used to and now take another hit with Takeo Spikes out. Strong safety Lawyer Milloy is also hampered by a broken thumb which has diminished his ability to tackle. The Saints have a powerful offensive line and should be able to impose their will on the Bills defense. The Saints are mistake prone and they consistently shoot themselves in the foot but they do all sorts of those negatives things a lot less when they can run the ball efficiently. Also, on defense, they have the best rotation of defensive ends in the NFL and Bills tackle Mike Williams may not play again this week.
Saints PICK
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Two battered and bruised teams head into a Sunday night meeting on a neutral field in Mexico. Here are the key injuries for Arizona: Kurt Warner, Antrel Rolle and Russell Davis. The Cardinals coaches would not have pursued a quarterback in the offseason if they were sold on Josh McCown, who will start the game. The Cards can not run the ball and will depend on an inaccurate quarterback to get the ball to their talented wide receivers. San Francisco has a good front seven and will present a tough match up for a poor offensive line. Arizona has allowed the third most sacks in the NFL, the 49ers have compiled the NFL’s third-highest total. The 49ers should be able to move the ball on the ground with Kevan Barlow and Frank Gore, keeping Tim Rattay in short third-down situations.
49ers +3
Dallas Cowboys @ Oakland Raiders
Bill Parcells is facing a team that has developed a tendency of self-destructing in the first three weeks which he should be able to take advantage of. The Raiders are clearly the best 0-3 team on the market but they do not match up well with the Cowboys. First off, they do not generate much pressure on the quarterback which is a must when facing Drew Bledsoe. Secondly, although their run defense has plugged any interior lanes, Julius Jones should be able to bounce outside for some decent gains. The Raiders defense is slow and sluggish overall which could be problematic against Jones. Offensively, the Raiders are still trying to figure out their identity. Norv Turner loves to spread the ball around but there seems to be no commitment to any one aspect. There is no focus on pounding the ball with LaMont Jordan and there is no concentration of passes heading in Randy Moss’ direction. The Cowboys are just a better team.
Cowboys +3
St. Louis Rams @ New York Giants
St. Louis is lucky to be 2-1 because their head coach can’t seem to manage a game. They should have lost to Arizona and barely held on to beat Tennessee at home. The Giants will focus on shutting down Steven Jackson after allowing an infinite amount of rushing yards the previous week. Even if this is a shootout, the Giants have the better defense. Furthermore, the Rams have a banged up secondary and I have no idea how they will cover Jeremy Shockey or Plaxico Burress.
Giants -3
Three E-mails:
Send ‘em if you got ‘em to dgolokhov@hotmail.com
Dave,
With the first overall selection in the 2006 NFL draft the New York Jets select Matt Leinart…
-from Sonny L.
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Chad Pennington is far too fragile for my liking.
Kurt Warner, Rex Grossman and Tim Rattay
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Dear Joe Horn,
Man, let me tell you something, the Cardinals aren't going to be the first team that they made a mockery of, and they will not be the last team that they make a mockery of.
The Arizona Cardinals, who play a “home game” in Mexico this weekend.
-from the AZ
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Two Games to Watch:
San Diego Chargers @ New England Patriots
Boy, Rodney Harrison would have loved to play against his former team. Can the Patriots overcome injuries to Matt Light and Rodney Harrison?
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals/Green Bay Packers @ Carolina Panthers
The Bengals 4-0 and the Packers 0-4? I’m heading underground into my shelter.
Golokhov Power Ranking:
The rating for each team combines: strength of schedule, offensive and defensive productiveness, turnover ratio and special teams all relative to the rest of the league’s performance. Official statistics that are used to calculate the ratings are provided by NFL.com.
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