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Five Observations:
1. Who says one player doesn’t make a difference? Two years ago, the last time Carolina Panthers All-Pro defensive tackle played a full season, the Panthers racked up 40 sacks (7th in NFL). Last year without him, the total dropped to 34 (24th in the NFL) and after losing Jenkins in the week one to a season ending injury again, the sack total looks like it will drop again. Julius Peppers is facing constant double-teams and he has yet to register a sack in four weeks but when Jenkins was around, opposing offensive lines could not send extra attention to Peppers or Mike Rucker. Without their big presence at tackle, the Panthers are struggling to pressure the quarterback with only four sacks this season which has them tied with the Houston Texans for 30th in the NFL.
2. Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Kyle Orton looked pretty much like a rookie the last time he stepped onto the field versus the Cincinnati Bengals (17-39, 149 YDS, 5 INT) but this week his task should be much more manageable. The Cleveland Browns defense has only three sacks (32nd in NFL), is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 76.2 of their passes (32nd in NFL) and is permitting opponents to convert 50% of their third downs (32nd in NFL). The Brown’s run defense is also allowing 125 yards per game which should allow Orton to minimize his mistakes.
3. Meet New Orleans Saints defensive ends Charles Grant, Will Smith, and Darren Howard. This trio is the best rotation on the ends that you will find anywhere in the NFL even though they get very little attention. Although at times they can be a little inconsistent (hey, who is consistent in New Orleans?) it is pretty rare that you don’t see a drop-off when your third defensive end comes into the game as a sub. The Saints defensive line has totaled eight sacks and these three have 5.5 of them.
4. Thank you for coming out Joey Harrington. As soon as Jeff Garcia’s leg heals, Joey will ride the pine – possibly for the rest of his career. He has been in the league for four years and if you compared his play to first-year starter J.P. Losman, who has now been benched, you probably would not know the difference.
Harrington: 49-92, 53.3%. 500 YDS, 3 TD, 5 INT, 57.3 QB RATING
Losman: 45-94, 47.9 %, 433 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT, 55.9 QB RATING
Also, both look like a deer in headlights but Joey’s been in the league much longer.
5. Has any offensive line deteriorated faster than the Baltimore Ravens? They let the younger, better, center Casey Rabach go to free agency and kept Mike Flynn. Oops. They picked up guard Keydrick Vincent in free agency who has been a disappointment. Oops. Guard Edwin Mulitalo and tackle Orlando Brown have severely underachieved this season. Oops. And their usual stalwart tackle Jonathan Ogden is not dominant anymore. The one intangible they have on their side is chemistry, which means they can still turn it around. If not, that top-notch defense will continue to spend way too much time on the field.
Four Picks:
Indianapolis Colts @ San Francisco 49ers
This is just a complete mismatch. The 49ers defense is on the field for 37 minutes a game and that total may come down a bit this weekend not because the offense is going to pick up some slack but because the Colts might be scoring very quickly. The Niners have one starting cornerback intact but the other is a fifth-stringer who was cut right before the season. Behind him…who knows? Their front seven is the strength of their defense but Indy has yet to allow a sack this year.
Indianapolis -14
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
The first quarter of this game will be critical as Kelly Holcomb will get the start and much of the team’s confidence will depend on how he plays. Miami is coming off a bye week and Nick Saban has made sure his team doesn’t underestimate the Bills. The key for the Bills defensively will be to bait Gus Frerotte into mistakes but that might be tough to do since the Dolphins should be able to run the ball. No Pat Williams, no Ron Edwards, no Takeo Spikes and a limited Lawyer Milloy are all problems the Bills defense needs to overcome. If Miami avoids the turnovers they should roll.
Miami +3
Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Diego Chargers
What do the Steelers do well on offense? Run the ball. What do the Chargers do well on defense? Stop the run. If the Steelers are forced to throw and Ben Roethlisberger has to make 20-25 attempts the Steelers will not win. Drew Brees and the Chargers passing game should be able to exploit an overrated Steelers secondary. LaDainian Tomlinson may have a tough time finding seams but the Chargers may not need a lot of points to win this game, especially if Hines Ward is unable to play.
Chargers -2.5
New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers
If you are one of the many that like the Packers this week, is it because of what you saw in the second half of last week’s loss to the Carolina Panthers on Monday Night? The Packers are extremely beat up with several regulars out already, and more questionable (Mike Flanagan, Javon Walker, Nail Diggs, Terrence Murphy out, Mark Tauscher, Chad Clifton, Ahman Green questionable). Meanwhile, the Saints are getting healthy with Fakhir Brown and Joe Horn ready to return. The Packers don’t generate a lot of quarterback pressure which means that Aaron Brooks should have time to make smart decisions and protect the ball. The Saints are a good team when they limit their turnovers.
New Orleans +3
Three E-mails:
Send ‘em if you got ‘em to dgolokhov@hotmail.com
Vegas,
How can a team’s ranking change in the bye week?
-from Sam in Richmond Hill.
Sam,
Strength of schedule factors greatly in the formula so even though a team may not play on a given week, their previous opponent may and their records will change therefore affecting the ranking. For example: Cleveland did not play last week but two of the previous teams they had played, Indianapolis and Cincinnati both won which would make their strength of schedule tougher and increase their ranking.
VD
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Dave,
I understand what Culpepper is saying, my play has also declined because of bursitis in my knee.
Joey Harrington.
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Hey Dave,
Where do I apply to play for the CFL?
Tim Rattay and JP Losman
-from Janic K. in Buffalo
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Two Games to Watch:
Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals
I hate to say, but all Josh McCown does is win (7-2 in last nine starts). Is Carolina ready after a short week?
Cincinnati Bengals @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Carson Palmer and the Bengals get their first true test of the season.
Golokhov Power Ranking:
The rating for each team combines: strength of schedule, offensive and defensive productiveness, turnover ratio and special teams all relative to the rest of the league’s performance. Official statistics that are used to calculate the ratings are provided by NFL.com.
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