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Five Observations:
1. Injuries have debilitated the New England Patriots roster but discipline has been just as much of an Achilles Heel. That’s not something you would expect to hear about a Bill Belichick team. Currently, they are second in the league in total penalty yards with 758. In case you don’t have a calculator handy, that’s 157 penalty yards per game. You can attest some of that to the new personnel getting out of position but regardless, the Patriots need this number to come down if they plan on late season success.
2. With Stephen Davis, DeShaun Foster, Nick Goings and Eric Shelton, the preseason thought was that the Carolina Panthers had the deepest running back grouping in the NFL. While that still remains true, even with all of those talented tailbacks the Panthers are ranked 20th in NFL rushing. While Davis has been effective picking up tough yards, particularly in the red zone, the Panther are only averaging 3.3 yards per carry and have broken only one run longer than 20 yards. If you ever hear that the Panthers are “playing down to their competition”, it is because they can not consistently run the ball and control the game.
3. St. Louis Rams running back Steven Jackson looks disgustingly good yet somehow he is only averaging 15.2 rushes per game. Oh wait, Mike Martz is the team’s head coach. Jackson looks like he can easily handle anywhere between 20-30 carries per week and carve up most opponents but he is still being drastically underused. Considering the Rams defense is abysmal, controlling the clock with Jackson opposed to airing the ball out every game may not be a bad idea to keep the defense out of sight and, more importantly, fresh.
4. Speaking of coaches who don’t like to run the ball, Andy Reid and his “short pass equals a hand off” strategy is not exactly working for his Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles rank 23rd in offensive time of possession and Donovan McNabb is second in the league with pass attempts (St. Louis Rams quarterback Marc Bulger is first). The feeling seems to be that Brian Westbrook can’t handle 20 carries a game but isn’t that what they said about Duce Staley? If you ask me, Westbrook is a playmaker and he should take more than 11 handoffs per game, which is what he is averaging these days.
5. Here is an interesting stat for you: the Denver Broncos rank dead last in third-down conversion percentage (27.7%). That is definitely surprising for a team that is 4-1. In the offseason, Ashley Lelie and Darius Watts worked really hard on the short-to-intermediate routes for exactly these types of situations yet the two have only combined for seven receptions and 135 yards for the year. Teams will continue to key in on Rod Smith until Lelie proves to be more than just a deep threat and although the Broncos can get away with this at home, they will not continue to win football games on the road if they can not convert more third downs.
Four Picks:
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills will be starting Kelly Holcomb for a second week in a row and although the offense was more effective with him at the helm, the defense still struggled to stop the run. Look for the Jets to try to exploit that and get Curtis Martin his first 100-yard rushing game of the year. This will be a battle of which team’s journeyman quarterback can make the least mistakes but the Jets have a better defense and a better coach so that should propel them to .500.
Jets +3.5
Washington Redskins @ Kansas City Chiefs
Redskins defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has done an excellent job with the defense getting average players to overachieve but even with all of his aggressive schemes, they only have four sacks this year. That will not cut it against a hungry Chiefs team coming off a bye week. Left tackle William Roaf returns this week, along with cornerback Eric Warfield and tackle John Welbourn which will make a world of difference. With better protection, look for tight-end Tony Gonzalez to get more involved as a receiver opposed to a blocker. The Chiefs are 17-4 against NFC opponents since 1995.
Chiefs -5.5
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
The Saints are still the same old inconsistent Saints so this week they could surprise. Yes they got stomped last week and yes they lost Deuce McAllister for the season but this team seems to win when it’s not supposed to and lose when it is not supposed to. It has been a tumultuous start to the season for the Saints but a win on Sunday will equal them with the Falcons.
Saints +6
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
The Vikings are a big mess right now and their cruise ship does not appear to be heading in the right direction. The Bears will likely mask their weak secondary by blitzing non-stop and forcing Daunte Culpepper into turnovers. If that’s the case, the Bears and their strong running game should be able to take this victory. Kyle Orton is getting a little better each week and he should have some short fields to work with this week.
Bears -2.5
Three E-mails:
Send ‘em if you got ‘em to dgolokhov@hotmail.com
Dave,
There was a party in Minnetonka and I wasn’t invited?
Ricky Williams
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Dave,
A party on a cruise ship with alcohol would be perfect – that way I won’t have to drive afterwards.
Koren Robinson, Eric Warfield, Larry Johnson, Steve McNair, Leonard Little
-from Stephen D.
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Dave,
I’ve got a pair of tickets for a fly cruise ship party. Regular $150 per person, I’ll scalp the pair to you for $250.
Mike Tice
-from Alexis in Cowtown
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Two Games to Watch:
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders
If you like to see scoring, you’ll enjoy this game.
Miami Dolphins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ronnie Brown vs Cadillac Williams and the return of Ricky Williams.
Golokhov Power Ranking:
The rating for each team combines: strength of schedule, offensive and defensive productiveness, turnover ratio and special teams all relative to the rest of the league’s performance. Official statistics that are used to calculate the ratings are provided by NFL.com.
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