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Five Observations:
1. It’s the year of the backup quarterback. As many as 13 teams have used a backup because of injuries or poor play and that number only figures to go up. When Detroit Lions quarterback Jeff Garcia recovers from a leg injury you can expect him to take over for Joey Harrington, the Cleveland Browns will eventually give Charlie Frye a go and a few teams are running thin on patience (David Carr in Houston, Aaron Brooks in New Orleans). Meanwhile the Chargers are sitting pretty with two starting quarterbacks and a decent backup. Who says you don’t need depth?
2. The Buffalo Bills will not continue to win games. They can’t – not the way their run defense is playing. They rank 30th in the NFL in rushing defense, permitting 158.5 yards per game and can not put teams away as a result. Both the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, Buffalo’s last two opponents, were badly outplayed by the Bills but both teams were within one score late in the fourth quarter. The Bills are allowing a league-worst 5.3 yards per carry and although the 12th man might invigorate their ailing defense at home late in the fourth quarter, on the road they will struggle. You can attest most of the problems to DT Tim Anderson’s ability to anchor (Ron Edwards’ replacement) and LB Angelo Crowell’s (Takeo Spikes replacement) inability to fill the correct gap or fight off blockers.
3. The Washington Redskins defense – yes, that relentless Gregg Williams defense – is dead last in the NFL in sacks (5) and is second-last in takeaways (2). Sounds like they are lacking a playmaker, eh? Well maybe it’s time to put egos aside and get LB LaVar Arrington on the field. If you flesh his career per-game sack average out over a season, that’s 5.5 sacks per year and the guy always has a knack for making the big play at the right time – something the Redskins D is clearly lacking. I guess owner Dan Snyder is still mad about the whole signing bonus thing.
4. Well, what do ya know? Mike Martz stops calling plays for the Rams and interim playcaller Steve Fairchild immediately starts pounding the ball. Rams running back Steven Jackson had 12 first-half carries on Monday night against the Colts before the game got out of hand and the Rams were forced to abandon the run. If that’s how the Rams are going to play, they immediately become one of the more dangerous teams in the NFC. Under Martz, they couldn’t manage a game (or a lead) but with a healthy dose of Steven Jackson the Rams will be able to hold onto their leads and keep their defense off the field.
5. You thought the NFC North was bad? Well the AFC East is the AFC’s version of the NFC North and by default, one team will make the postseason from each of those divisions. The Bills running defense is horrendous and their offense still has holes, the Dolphins can not stop committing penalties and they can not win on the road while half of the Jets and Patriots rosters are in the intensive care unit. I can already see a team like Jacksonville, San Diego or Pittsburgh getting snubbed while some East team stumbles into the playoffs.
Four Picks:
San Diego Chargers @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Chargers strength defensively is their run defense and their weakness is their secondary. Well, good thing the Eagles throw the ball like crazy. Terrell Owens should have a big day and the quickly-maturing Greg Lewis will also be tough to cover for San Diego. LaDainian Tomlinson does pose a major threat but I look for the Eagles to come out motivated defensively after getting torched by the Giants two weeks ago.
Eagles -3.5
New Orleans Saints @ St. Louis Rams
The Rams will be without starting quarterback Marc Bulger this week but the Saints have a list of injuries of their own. Joe Horn is very questionable and Donte’ Stallworth will not be 100% with a nagging hamstring injury. Four of the Saints five O-line starters are questionable and their best playmaker on defense, safety Dwight Smith is also questionable. The Rams will pound Steven Jackson all day long and Jamie Martin has enough poise to make some key throws to keep the Saints secondary on its heels.
Rams -3
San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Redskins
Alex Smith has had a bye to mull over his performance two weeks ago but now he’ll get his first start on the road. The Redskins have excellent cornerbacks to match with the 49ers receivers which should cut-off any big plays. If everything is underneath, the 49ers will have trouble moving the ball consistently and will struggle in the red zone. The Redskins like to use max-protection sets on offense which will give lots of time for Santana Moss to break free against some very inexperienced cornerbacks. Can Clinton Portis finally get in the end-zone?
Redskins -12.5
Buffalo Bills @ Oakland Raiders
Believe it or not, but the Raiders may have more success this week if Randy Moss doesn’t play. Norv Turner loves to include all of his weapons but sometimes that complicates things and the offense loses its rhythm. Without Moss, look for the offense to give a consistent dose of carries to LaMont Jordan. The Bills have stacked the box all season long and have been unable to stop the run. The Raiders have good cornerbacks to match with Buffalo and their run defense has been better than advertised.
Raiders -3
Three E-mails:
Send ‘em if you got ‘em to dgolokhov@hotmail.com
dave,
I’m instantiating a dress code too, does that make me a racist?
Zygi Wilf
-from Tama
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VD,
I told you not to waste a first-round fantasy draft pick on Peyton Manning.
Tony Gonzalez
-from Cerdy in Houston
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VD,
The NFL trade deadline is pretty uneventful.
The 2005 MLB trade deadline
-from Alex S.
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Two Games to Watch:
Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins
Not only is this the return of Patrick Surtain and Sammy Knight to Miami, how often do you see two teams, both with two running backs who could be NFL starters?
Detroit Lions @ Cleveland Browns
Steve Mariucci is debating whether to start Joey Harrington or Jeff Garcia. Does Jeff get a change at his former team?
Golokhov Power Ranking:
The rating for each team combines: strength of schedule, offensive and defensive productiveness, turnover ratio and special teams all relative to the rest of the league’s performance. Official statistics that are used to calculate the ratings are provided by NFL.com.
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