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Five Observations:
1. Pittsburgh looks like one of the frontrunners in the AFC but there are a couple of ominous signs for the Steelers that should cause some concern: time of possession and third-downs. Last season the Steelers led the league in time of possession as their offense spent 34 minutes on the field per game. This year they rank 19th. If you are wondering why the drastic drop-off, it is directly linked to their inefficiency on third-downs. They are only converting 31.6% (29th in NFL) of their third-downs and their defense is allowing opponents to convert 43.4% (29th in NFL). Last year they ranked 6th overall in these categories. Not a good sign for a team built around controlling the ball and controlling the clock.
2. With Marcus Stroud and John Henderson, the Jacksonville Jaguars have the best set of starting defensive tackles in the NFL so how are teams using their run defense as a treadmill? The Jags have stuffed teams up the middle but their outside linebackers and defensive ends have not played with much discipline. For example, last week, Rams running back Steven Jackson did not find much room in between the tackles but when he would cutback to the outside, he would have much more space to work with. That also forces the two big tackles to do a lot more running than they would like to do and in turn leads to them wearing down by the fourth quarter.
3. Don’t be too surprised by the Denver Broncos 6-2 record. To this point, they have played more home games than anyone else in the NFL. Since 2000, the Broncos are 23-9 at home and this year they are 5-0. Expect them to come down from cloud nine with three of their next four games on the road and only three remaining home games in the last eight weeks.
4. Pundits are always quick to point out that Chicago Bears quarterback Kyle Orton is a rookie but with every snap he is becoming more and more comfortable. He is putting more zip on his passes, he is looking off safeties and he is feeling the pressure in the pocket much better. Last week, the coaches displayed their confidence in him when they allowed him to throw the ball out of his end zone on a second-and-10. More importantly, after throwing six interceptions in the first three weeks of the season, he is doing a much better job of taking care of the ball and has only thrown one pick in his last four games.
5. Thanks for coming out Baltimore. After seven games, the Ravens and their highly-touted defense have as many wins as the Cleveland Browns. Jamal Lewis is not going all-out because of contract and ankle concerns, neither of their plug ‘n play quarterbacks can avoid mistakes and their offensive line isn’t capable of blocking for a high school team. The team looks like they are about to pack it in for the season any minute now and unfortunately Brian Billick is going to take the blame here. He should shoulder some of it but the Ravens could easily fix a number of their problems with a half-decent quarterback and a couple of draft picks for their offensive line.
Four Picks:
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Oakland Raiders head into this game with momentum and confidence after winning their last two games. They have found offensive balance with the run and the pass and will make it difficult for a Chiefs defense that is, even with all the new personnel, giving up a ton of yards and points. Look for a steady dose of LaMont Jordan to soften up the defense and then the Raiders will attack a beat up secondary through the air. Defensively, the Raiders are lacking in the secondary but the Chiefs are not a very good passing team and don’t have the personnel to exploit that weakness. With the Chiefs offensive line beat up again, tight end Tony Gonzalez will once again have to do more blocking than receiving. Look for the Raiders to be motivated after losing earlier in the season to Kansas City in a game where two Raider touchdowns were called back on ghostly calls.
Raiders +4
Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints
The Bears are coming off of an emotional win against Detroit and will have to be careful not to fall into a trap against New Orleans this Sunday. If they focus, they should win the game but the Saints do have an advantage when passing the ball as their wide receivers will create mismatches for the Bears secondary. The Bears will pound the ball on the ground all day long and this may be the game Cedric Benson breaks out. As long as Kyle Orton avoids Saints safety Dwight Smith, the Bears should control the clock and eventually wear the Saints out.
Bears -3
San Diego Chargers @ New York Jets
We know that the Jets labor to pass the ball and they likely won’t accomplish much against the Chargers run defense. On the flipside, the Jets have had an extra week of preparation and with cornerback Ty Law shadowing Chargers wideout Keenan McCardell, the Jets will be able to sell out to stop the run. The Chargers are nicked up on the offensive line with starters Nick Hardwick and Roman Oben listed as questionable which will directly affect LaDainian Tomlinson’s effectiveness. This appears to have the mixings of a low scoring affair.
Chargers/Jets under 41
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If you watched the nationally televised games over the weekend (BUF@NE & BAL@PIT) then you know what division rivalries are all about. This rivalry has developed into one of the better ones in the recent years and this weekend’s game to be very close. As the game approaches, the 5-2 Buccaneers are getting no respect and they will play with something to prove this weekend. After seeing a ferocious 49ers defense blitz from all angles and formations last week, expect Chris Simms to be much more prepared for this week’s game. Much has been made of the Buccaneers weak schedule to this point but the Panthers have only faced one team with a record above .500.
Buccaneers +1
Three E-mails:
Send ‘em if you got ‘em to dgolokhov@hotmail.com
Dave,
Can you please let the Packers know that I am still looking for work.
Maurice Clarett
-Massimo from Vancouver
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Dave,
The Manning brothers may be the best brother QB tandem in the NFL right now but we are hot on their trail.
Ryan and Brady Leaf
-Alex in Richmond
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Dave,
Did you know that LaDainian Tomlinson has only two less passing touchdowns than Michael Vick? He also has a better completion percentage and a better QB rating.
-A Michael Vick Hater
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Two Games to Watch:
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
Maybe this is the game the Eagles finally start to run the ball…
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
I think you know why to watch.
Golokhov Power Ranking:
The rating for each team combines: strength of schedule, offensive and defensive productiveness, turnover ratio and special teams all relative to the rest of the league’s performance. Official statistics that are used to calculate the ratings are provided by NFL.com.
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