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The North American Crow has made its way to the endangered list. Farmers across the heartland of America have been the unexpected beneficiaries of this never seen before phenomena. Seymore Butz, a rancher in North Dakota had this to say about the recent shortage. “Normally, I can’t give any of these damn crow away…but nowadays, them boys over there at ESPN have been orderin’ em by the case. Now me and my wife Wilhelmina can finally make it down to Graceland”. Why is this happening you may ask???? Unfortunately, analysts across the nation have been served double and triple entrees due to the unexpected success of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Just a month ago, everyone had the Dodgers slated for third or fourth in the NL West, and now the bandwagon is full. Los Angeles started out blazing hot, winning 12 of their first 14, and are now in first place. Even though they have lost 4 out of their last 5 they are still tied with the St. Louis Cardinals for best record in the National League. The big question, though, is should the rest of the NL West panic? Will the Dodgers be able to sustain this high level of play?
To answer this question, it is probably a good idea to look at the teams the Dodgers will have to outperform to win the division. The NL West is comprised of Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Arizona, and Colorado. Before the start of the season, most analysts picked the Giants to win, with the Padres and Dodgers rounding out the top three. There are a lot of things that have changed since spring training, so it is probably a good idea to take a more detailed look at each team. Let’s start with the Padres.
The San Diego Padres are the biggest enigma of the season. I do not know how they are under .500 with all of the talent they have. Jake Peavy and Adam Eaton are pitching studs, and Mark Loretta, Phil Nevin, and Brian Giles should be able to generate much more offense than they are producing right now. The loss of Khalil Greene at shortstop hurts the Pads defensively, but Geoff Blum has done an excellent job and has a pretty decent bat as well. Their relievers have been a bit shaky, but Linebrink and Otsuka should end up being a strength, and Trevor Hoffman is always reliable when healthy. Therefore, I think that the Padres can take their hands off of the panic button, as I look for them to surge in the upcoming weeks.
The San Francisco Giants, on the other hand, should have been pushing the panic button ever since Barry got hurt. San Francisco is built around a premise of winning now and worrying about the future later. This can work if the talent at the major league level is there. Unfortunately for them, without Barry, there is nowhere near the talent needed to win their division. Omar Vizquel and Edgardo Alfonso have played well, but it just hasn’t been nearly enough for San Francisco to win consistently. The bullpen has been absolutely disastrous and besides Jim Brower, there is no one with any potential there. Injuries to J.T. Snow and Moises Alou have severely dented any hopes of success without Barry Bonds. Finally, the Giants have no tradeable players in their farm system. In Fresno (the Giants AAA affiliate) the only thing that doesn’t grow is talented ballplayers. I think that if the Giants do not turn it around by the end of next month, there will be a flurry of trades, and the rebuilding process will begin. However, we are talking about San Francisco, so who knows what they might do.
Arizona has been somewhat of a surprise to the pundits of the MLB. Even though they lost over 100 games, they made excellent transactions in the offseason. I thought that they would have a shot at the division crown if Glaus, Green, Vasquez, and Ortiz played to their potential. It looks like so far, these four have and the Diamondbacks will be a force to contend with. Troy Glaus and Shawn Green, along with Luis Gonzalez have given the Diamondbacks a nice 1-2-3 punch in the batting order. This trio is the most feared in the NL West and rightly so. They have combined for 11 homeruns and 34 runs batted in. After a couple of shaky starts Javier Vasquez looks to be rounding into form. He looked excellent last night against the Dodgers and has Cy Young potential. Russ Ortiz is the number 2 starter Arizona needs, and Webb, Halsey, and Shawn Estes rounds out their rotation well. The key to Arizona’s success will be their bullpen and defense. As far as the bullpen is concerned, it looks like the Diamondbacks have finally found their man in Brandon Lyon. Lyon has been an unexpected star as closer with a 1.54 ERA and 9 saves. He has kept hitters off-balance and he is a major reason why Arizona is only 1 ½ games behind Los Angeles. The Diamondback defense is shaky to the least. The only thing running wilder than the coyotes of the Sonora desert are runners of opposing teams on the basepaths. Koyie Hill and Chris Snyder must do a better job of throwing out base stealers. If the D-Back defense can improve, they stand an excellent chance of winning the West.
To all of the Rockies fans, I only have two words for you; “Go Nuggets!!!” Colorado is in the midst of a rebuilding process, and there is no chance of them winning this year. The Rockies would love to win now, but realistically, a division title is probably 2 or 3 years away. Their pitching staff is almost non-existent, and they burn more leads than a bad salesperson. Even though Clint Barmes, Todd Helton, and Aaron Miles are fantasy studs, in reality, their bats are just not enough to counteract the terrible Rocky pitching. Colorado does not even have a panic button to push, as they have never been in contention. The Rockies will be strong in a couple of years; however, their chances this year are slim to none.
It really looks like it is a three-horse race to for the NL West crown. The Dodgers, Padres and Diamondbacks all have a chance to win. The Dodgers and Padres have the strongest pitching staffs, so I think one of those two teams will triumph. In order for Los Angeles to win, their offense must not drift like the fans that head for the exits in the 6th inning. Milton Bradley, Jeff Kent, and J.D. Drew must anchor the Dodger attack at the plate. Cesar Izturis must continue to hit for average and steal bases, and L.A. must get some production out of their first baseman. If the Padres are to win, Dave Roberts must continue to stay healthy and create havoc on the basepaths. Loretta, Giles, and Nevin must improve their slugging percentage and Khalil Greene needs to be a strong defensive presence when he comes back from his finger injury. All in all, I think that the Dodgers will win it, and the Padres stand an excellent chance of obtaining a wildcard berth.
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